GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) shares are falling after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to "Underweight" from "Equalweight," citing pessimism on the chances GSK's Cervarix drug will gain FDA approval in 2009.If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GSK.
After hitting a one-year high of $54.64 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $40.51 in March. This morning, GSK opened at $43.76. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.57 and a high of $44.01. As of 12:30, GSK is trading at $43.78, down $0.71 (-1.6%). The chart for GSK looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $47.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in eight weeks as long as GSK is below $47.50 at July expiration. Glaxo would have to rise by more than 8% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
GSK hasn't been above $47.50 since January and has shown resistance around $45 recently. This trade could be risky if the stock breaks above the $46 level where it has topped out over the past few months, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance GSK might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $48 and falling.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GSK.









