Larry Kudlow, a right-wing market commentator on CNBC and WABC radio, has been trying to sell the idea that the market doesn't like presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and will surely tank if he's elected.

Kudlow claims: "Markets don't like Obama. If he wins alongside Democratic gains in the House and Senate, taxes are going up big time. [...] Interestingly, stocks have preferred Hillary in the Democratic fight...because markets believe they can do business with Hillary in a way they can't with Obama."

His proof? The day after West Virgina the Dow was up 66 points. But didn't everyone already know she would take West Virginia (if not by such a huge margin? Don't traders still buy on the rumor, sell on the news anymore? Do traders only belong to that dwindling club of Clinton partisans who believe West Virginia was another turn-around?

We could pick apart every primary and its impact on the Dow or S&P after one hour, day or week, but that would be silly. My guess is it's a wash. We can easily cherry pick stats that show Mr. Market has a crush on Obama. After Obama's huge Potomac victory, the Dow rose 97 points. That was generally when it became clear that Obama was winning and since then the market is up around another 200 points.

Sure, you can make statistically sound inferences about the link between the market and elections. The smart folks at Stock Trader's Almanac have been doing it for decades. (They show, by the way, that the market does better under Democrats.) But they don't just pull out a random day of market activity and say it means that investors bought stocks because voters in one state preferred Hillary over Barack.

Kudlow knows better than to think that the market reacts only to the latest political story. Saying what made the market go up or down on any given day is usually a fool's errand. (Not that I haven't done it.) The truth is that absent huge news, the market moves on a mysterious blend of company news, analysis, emotion, financial planning decisions, volume, technical factors and economics. And West Virginia doesn't qualify as huge. Even on primary-crazy MSNBC.

Right now, Mr. Market has a lot more on his mind than the all-but-over Democratic race. Mr. Market may be a little preoccupied with the chance of a looming recession, wilting consumer confidence and the dismal housing market. As whimsical as Mr. Market is, he may be more rational than Kudlow.