Microsoft's failure with Windows Vista may be only the beginning


We've all been hearing it -- Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ: MSFT) failure to win over consumers and business users with the Windows Vista operating system is causing sales of the older Windows XP operating system to stay afloat. Microsoft doesn't want this, of course. It's true that the software maker has shipped more than 140 million copies of Windows Vista, but since Vista is the default operating system on millions of PCs, it's pretty easy to do that.

Some corporate customers, though, have bypassed Windows Vista completely and will wait until the next round. This is Microsoft's Achilles' heel -- some companies won't fix something that isn't broke. General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) even says that "We're considering bypassing Vista and going straight to Windows 7," in reference to Microsoft's next operating system due sometime in the future. Yes, many large companies are indeed taking Windows Vista in -- but it's mostly due to not having much choice with changing out entire computing infrastructures for a global corporation. It takes a visionary IT leader to do that, and those are hard to come by in many cases.

And therein lies a big problem for Redmond. If customers aren't excited about its new operating system, why would they think Windows 7 will be any better? It's hard to fathom Microsoft pouring $5 billion into Vista and being shunned left and right. The software maker's operating system and Office productivity business subsidizes all its other products where it may make little or no money. But what if Windows is destined to become a slow-growth industry? If that's the case, where is Microsoft's growth engine going to come from in 2010? 2012? It's making gobs of money now. Will it last? When its main product underwhelms much of the market, the question has to be asked.

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