First Quarter GDP was revised to 0.9% up from the initial estimate of 0.6%. This was also up from the fourth-quarter GDP number of 0.6%. The increase was largely due to increased export growth with consumer spending up but quite anemic.

Initial jobless claims came in at 372,000 which were up from 368,000 from the prior week. However, this was still well below the 400,000 number often mentioned as associated with recessions.

These numbers indicate that it is likely that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession this year. The monetary easing from the Federal Reserve seems to be cushioning the downturn with businesses and the consumer. We are also seeing the positive aspect of a lower dollar with increased export growth. The fiscal stimulus will also be kicking in the economy as the rebate checks arrive in the mail.

Does this mean that the economy will start to rally? Not likely. The housing downturn continues and will act as a break on consumer spending. This has no quick fix and will take time to repair itself. The last housing crisis in the late 1980s and early 1990s took several years to be resolved. This time will not be any quicker.

Also, the increase in oil prices acts as a tax on the consumer and causes inflationary pressures that limit the Fed's actions. Unless oil prices fall, any stock market rally will probably be limited in nature.

Nevertheless, I do not see the Fed raising rates in the near future despite comments by several people to the contrary. The economy is too fragile as indicated by the initial claims number. This is also an election year with split government between Democrats in control of the legislature and a Republican in the White House. No one wants to be blamed for a recession in an election year!

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for ChannelCapitalResearch.com, and is the author of Follow the Fed® to Investment Success: The Effortless Strategy for Beating Wall Street. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co