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Trade idea for Netflix (NFLX) downgrade

Posted May 29th 2008 1:05PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Options, Technical Analysis

NFLX logoNetflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares are falling after an analyst at Thomas Weisel downgraded the stock to "Market Weight" from "Overweight" on concerns about increased competition. Technical indicators for NFLX are bearish and steady. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on NFLX.

After hitting a one-year low of $15.62 in July, the stock hit a one-year high of $40.90 in April. This morning, NFLX opened at $30.24. So far today the stock has hit a low of $29.81 and a high of $31.12. As of 12:40, NFLX is trading at $30.71, down 0.41 (-1.3%). The chart for NFLX looks bearish and steady.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $42.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in three months as long as NFLX is below $42.50 at September expiration. Netflix would have to rise by more than 9% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

NFLX hasn't been above $41 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $32.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in mid-July) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance NFLX might find just above $40, where the stock topped out in April.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NFLX.

Tags: downgrade, Investors Observer, InvestorsObserver, Netflix, NFLX, options

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