Consumers sulk as inflation devours their stagnant income


Reuters reports that consumer confidence has hit a 28-year low. That should not come as a surprise. After all, between 2000 and 2007 the median income has dropped from $61,000 to $60,500. But prices have skyrocketed. And with growth slowing -- the prospect of layoffs looms large while consumers expect prices to keep rising.

There is something called the Federal Reserve. And it's supposed to keep those inflationary expectations under control by raising interest rates to strengthen the currency and keep credit use from going haywire. But the Fed got confused. It thought that by cutting rates from 5.25% to 2%, it could revive a frozen credit market without boosting inflation. Whoops! Now the credit markets remain frozen but actual inflation and expectations for future inflation are both skyrocketing.



Those expectations are rising fast. One-year inflation expectations surged to 5.2% -- the highest since February 1982 -- from 4.8% in April. Worse yet, five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.4%, the highest since April 1995. In April this year they were at 3.2%. If there is any good news it's this -- if the Fed raised interest rates, the dollar would strengthen, oil prices -- which are denominated in dollars -- would fall, and investors would pour back into U.S. stocks.

The extra investment might actually provide the capital to fuel corporate expansion and create new jobs and income growth. One thing seems certain to me -- it's dangerous to build an economy on a foundation of debt. If the Fed raises rates, maybe we'll be able to rebuild it on equity instead.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 13, 2012: 07:42 AM

Hot Stocks

General Electric

18.875-0.255(-1.33)

Alcoa

10.29-0.35(-3.29)

Apple Inc

493.42+0.25(+0.05)

Google Inc 'A'

605.91-5.55(-0.91)

Bank of America

8.07-0.11(-1.34)

Wal-Mart Stores

61.90-0.06(-0.10)

Exxon Mobil Corp

83.80-1.08(-1.27)

Ford

12.44-0.25(-1.97)

Citigroup

32.925-0.735(-2.18)

IBM

192.42-0.71(-0.37)

Yahoo

16.14+0.14(+0.88)

Starbucks

48.82-0.38(-0.77)

Microsoft

30.495-0.275(-0.89)

Home Depot

45.33+0.06(+0.13)

DailyFinance Headlines

Benzinga Headlines

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

BioHealth Investor Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

DailyFinance BlackBerry App

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

BioHealth Investor Headlines

Page Loaded in 1329136968209 ms.