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Ford's (F) latest problem may be its most difficult

The trouble doesn't ever seem to end at Ford (NYSE: F). A recession in the U.S. is causing its car sales here to fall. It was counting on a turnaround in North America to get it back to an operating profit. Management had to back off goals to be in the black in 2009. More lay-offs are coming now, and Ford may not be able to get small enough to generate cash.

Now, Ford's lending arm is getting into hot water. The company's credit operation is facing defaults on many of its loans. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Ford's predicament, however, is similar to that of many mortgage lenders. Delinquencies are rising on its loans -- especially those for big trucks -- and some of its borrowers owe more than their vehicles are worth." Ford had hoped that its credit arm would make money soon, but that is not very likely.

All of this points to Ford's need to raise money, and more important, whether it can stay independent. Overseas sales are going well, but they cannot offset massive losses in the company's home market. Ford stock is down to $6.71 and its market cap, at $15 billion, is a mere 9% of total annual sales. Any attempt to raise a huge amount of capital would push down the stock, due to dilution, perhaps by a significant amount.

If Ford faces having to get more capital in a tough credit market, it may have to pay unusually high interest rates on the debt. The point will come when cash flow will not cover debt service. At that point, Ford may have to look for a buyer.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 06:16 AM

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