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When will Blu-ray become a major medium?

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I read an article out on the AP over the weekend that reflected some thoughts I've been having about the Blu-ray medium. It just doesn't feel like people are that crazy for the format just yet, and it looks like my perception may be right.

The AP piece talks about how the price of the players seems to be too high for consumers. With some going for $399, the value issue is understandable in the context of an economic slowdown. Another good point was brought up: since consumers have been busy upgrading to large-screen TVs, there's just not enough left in some household budgets for adoption of the relatively new technology.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), however, was mentioned as a retailer that is planning to become competitive in terms of price on Blu-ray units. Nevertheless, pundits believe it might be a few years before Blu-ray becomes saturated in homes across America.

As an investor who holds media companies in his portfolio -- Disney (NYSE: DIS), Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and, through General Electric (NYSE: GE), I have exposure to NBC Universal -- I am hoping that the new format becomes ubiquitous as swiftly as possible. Compared to DVD's initial adoption, there is some statistical evidence that the curve is actually proceeding at a faster pace.

So, no matter what, Blu-ray saturation is on its way, and with it, the opportunity for media companies everywhere to monetize their libraries all over again. Until that happens, media concerns are experimenting with all manner of digital content distribution to the home. They want to see if they can establish as direct a relationship as is practical with the consumer, thus cutting out the retailing middleman.

Companies such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Sony (NYSE: SNE) are all pushing the benefits of Blu-ray, and I hope they succeed, not only in explaining the value-added, but in keeping the price point of the discs at a high level. While I obviously don't mind the hardware costs coming down, costs for content are always a challenge to keep from depreciating since we live in a digital world that has taught many in recent generations that content should be free. On an anecdotal level, I've detected a lot of resistance to paying higher price points for Blu-ray discs. This is why Disney et al. are so high on digital distribution, as it's a margin issue.

So, it may be a little while before media companies truly see a big growth benefit from Blu-ray. But when the format turns into a regular zeitgeist sweeping the home-theater population, media entities will be able to prove once again that content is king.

Disclosure: I own shares of Disney, Marvel, and GE; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 10:04 PM

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