I read an article out on the AP over the weekend that reflected some thoughts I've been having about the Blu-ray medium. It just doesn't feel like people are that crazy for the format just yet, and it looks like my perception may be right.
The AP piece talks about how the price of the players seems to be too high for consumers. With some going for $399, the value issue is understandable in the context of an economic slowdown. Another good point was brought up: since consumers have been busy upgrading to large-screen TVs, there's just not enough left in some household budgets for adoption of the relatively new technology.
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), however, was mentioned as a retailer that is planning to become competitive in terms of price on Blu-ray units. Nevertheless, pundits believe it might be a few years before Blu-ray becomes saturated in homes across America.
As an investor who holds media companies in his portfolio -- Disney (NYSE: DIS), Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and, through General Electric (NYSE: GE), I have exposure to NBC Universal -- I am hoping that the new format becomes ubiquitous as swiftly as possible. Compared to DVD's initial adoption, there is some statistical evidence that the curve is actually proceeding at a faster pace.
So, no matter what, Blu-ray saturation is on its way, and with it, the opportunity for media companies everywhere to monetize their libraries all over again. Until that happens, media concerns are experimenting with all manner of digital content distribution to the home. They want to see if they can establish as direct a relationship as is practical with the consumer, thus cutting out the retailing middleman.
Companies such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Sony (NYSE: SNE) are all pushing the benefits of Blu-ray, and I hope they succeed, not only in explaining the value-added, but in keeping the price point of the discs at a high level. While I obviously don't mind the hardware costs coming down, costs for content are always a challenge to keep from depreciating since we live in a digital world that has taught many in recent generations that content should be free. On an anecdotal level, I've detected a lot of resistance to paying higher price points for Blu-ray discs. This is why Disney et al. are so high on digital distribution, as it's a margin issue.
So, it may be a little while before media companies truly see a big growth benefit from Blu-ray. But when the format turns into a regular zeitgeist sweeping the home-theater population, media entities will be able to prove once again that content is king.
Disclosure: I own shares of Disney, Marvel, and GE; positions can change at any time.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-02-2008 @ 3:45PM
JIm said...
I bought a new TV a year ago with a HD cd player built in so I would not have a box setting on the table and another remote. I will not be buying a blue ray player in the near future, besides if I wait they will be selling for $100.00s less very soon.
6-02-2008 @ 4:57PM
jag said...
The fact is blu-ray will never reach full saturation in the marketplace. New/Current technology already makes having a DVD/blu-ray player obsolete and if it wasn't for PS3 we would still be talking about HD-DVD.
Long term the Best Buy and Blockbuster will be hurt. The movie companies will still get there money off of downloads but likely at a much lower rate.
6-30-2008 @ 12:06AM
John Bowen said...
So Mr. Mallas, in all of your talking, as it were, you in no way said why you are so hot on Blue-Ray.. Unless you have invested in such... I for one will never switch away from current DVDs, unless I can not longer get them...... Do not see that happening for a long, long time.... Besides I have over 2,000 movies on video, and will be copying them to DVDs over the years....