Collective Brands walks all over expectations, but I'm ignoring it


Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), operator of Payless ShoeSource and owner of the Stride Rite brand, reported Q1 earnings on Wednesday. Revenues increased 28% to $932 million. Pretty cool increase. Adjusting earnings per share for a litigation charge and an inventory issue, net income came in at $0.71 per share versus the $0.59 per share booked a year ago.

That's decent growth, but there are a couple things to consider here. First, the top line wasn't fully organic, as it includes the Stride Rite acquisition (remember that Payless ShoeSource bought out Stride Rite and became Collective Brands). Second, same-store sales did not confirm any sort of underlying healthy trend. Comps declined a nasty 6.5%. So, even though earnings expectations were beat by a wide margin according to MarketWatch (analysts seemed to think the shoe concern would do about $0.56 per share), I'm not fully impressed.

And let's go back to that litigation thing. The earnings release discusses the risk involved with an unfavorable ruling vis-a-vis the retailer's battle with Adidas. That's another strike against the company for me. From a price-action perspective, Collective Brands' stock has been rather weak as of late, and it currently sits much closer to the 52-week low than it does to the 52-week high.

I see no reason to think of Collective Brands as an investment. The economic slowdown will lead to increased competition, and the litigation surrounding this entity is not attractive at all. Consumers have a lot of choices for shoe purchases, they can go to Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) and other places. Actually, I use Payless exclusively for my footwear needs. I will not, however, use the company for my investment portfolio.

Disclosure: I don't own any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 11:30 AM

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