ECB's Trichet says bank may raise interest rates as soon as next month

In the final analysis, the European Central Bank may not attend the Fed's rate cut party, after all.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday the ECB may increase interest rates as soon as next month to check euro-zone inflation, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

On Thursday, the ECB kept its key, short-term interest rate at 4%. That pause, combined with the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut pause, suggests that the world's two strongest central banks believe there may be enough monetary stimulus in the system to avert a regional recession prompted by the worst housing slump in the United States in more than 15 years.

Trichet: the hawk of hawks

The Fed has cut short-term interest rates by 325 basis points to 2% since September 2007. Further, while some economists had forecast a mild ECB easing in mid-2008 to stimulate euro-zone growth and avert a regional recession, throughout the Fed's easing cycle Trichet has maintained his notoriously hawkish stance and has repeatedly underscored the need to check oil-fed inflation in Europe.

Inflation is running about at 3.1% annual rate in the euro-zone, and May data indicated inflation continues to trend higher. Trichet's Thursday comments represent the most specific signal to-date from the ECB that the bank's bias concerns checking inflation, not stimulating growth, given its read on economic conditions.

Economic Analysis: Trichet's stance is not surprising, but in this case he may be hitting the monetary policy brake too soon. The legendary inflation hawk would dearly love to get out of this economic slowdown without an interest rate cut, but it may not be possible. Economic growth in the euro-zone's border economies is slowing, while the U.S. economy is barely showing a pulse. If the euro-zone falls into a recession, Trichet's hawkish stance will be viewed as a needless -- and avoidable -- monetary policy error.