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Now, younger adult customers are starting to call on Avon

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Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With this in mind, Avon is worth an evaluation.

For decades a door-to-door company, Avon (NYSE: AVP) has stepped into the globalization and digital ages, and the initial progress reports are positive.

Avon is the midst of a restructuring aimed at increasing efficiency and widening the company's sales venues. In its most recent quarter, Avon's North American region was a laggard, but its international business performed well, registering a 16% increase in sales, with double-digit gains from Central/Eastern Europe, and an impressive 29% rise in China. Further, in general, analysts were pleased with AVP's emerging market performance, citing brand building gains and an ability to attract much-sought, younger-adult women. As a result, AVP is on-track to meet analysts' 7-9% revenue gain for F2008.

Direct selling (5.3 million representatives) continues to be AVP's base, but catalogs, mall kiosks, a day spa, and a web site create a diverse retail presence.

All the while, Avon has also reduced its costs by initiating manufacturing operations in lower-cost regions of the world, and via sales force productivity increases. The company's expanded product base (cosmetics, fragrances, toiletries, jewelry, apparel, and home furnishings) is succeeding at widening its brand appeal across categories. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for AVP are $2.16/$2.57.


The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on Avon's marketing costs, and consumer reception of new products introduced.

The First Call mean rating for AVP is: Buy. [13 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $48. [high: $55, low: $44.]

Stock Analysis: Avon is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from AVP's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $28.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 07:32 PM

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