With oil prices at $130 a barrel, The Washington Post has finally picked up the story about how a regulatory loophole allows hedge funds and other institutional investors to control unlimited quantities of oil contracts. Over the last few weeks, I've posted about this topic here and here. Nobody seems to know how much of the oil trading these speculators control, but I came across one source that put the figure at 60%.
The so-called swaps loophole is promulgated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) which has exempted investment banks from rules that limit speculative buying, a prerogative traditionally reserved for airlines and trucking companies that need to lock in future fuel costs. The CFTC also waived regulations limiting trading in overseas markets.
The CFTC is complaining that it needs more resources. It claims that commodities trading has exploded in complexity and popularity growing six-fold in trading volume since 2000. But the CFTC's staff has dropped to its lowest levels in its 33-year history. According to CFTC acting Chairman Walter Lukken, "We could hire an extra 100 people and put them to work tomorrow given the inflow of trading volume."
I think the CFTC should close the loophole and get the people it needs to do its job. If the speculators can't find a way around the closed loophole, their share of oil trading volume will drop. Then we'll see what happens to the price of oil.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-06-2008 @ 9:54AM
Come On said...
HELP SPREAD THE WORD for a World Wide Protest --
JULY 3rd everyone TAKE YOUR MONEY OUT OF YOUR BANK.
Lets have a REAL Independence Day In protest of Inflated GAS PRICES
HELP SPREAD THE WORD for a World Wide Protest --
6-06-2008 @ 10:30AM
andym said...
You are kidding right? This kind of regulation is exactly what happens in a socialist economy. If you take away speculation, you are going to have a less fluid market. The reason why oil is expensive is because of supply and demand and the value of the dollar. We are slipping the way of Vietnam.
http://www.themarkettraders.com/content/the-currency-crisis-vietnam-and-dont-think-it-can-happen-here
6-06-2008 @ 1:22PM
john said...
Take your money out of the bank???? And this will accomplish what?
6-06-2008 @ 1:30PM
jehadder said...
The Wall Street Journal recently published an article in which it said 50% of the increase in the price of oil since 2002 could be attributed to the declining value of the dollar. I think it's probably reasonable to assume that a significant portion of the balance of this price increase is due to the world demand for oil. Regarding the role of the CFTC, I concur with your advice to give them the resources they need to do their job. If we don't agree with their charter, we can change that, but we can't risk having the quivalent of a financial meltdown in the commodities market because no one's watching the store.
6-06-2008 @ 2:03PM
scubapop01 said...
just because one ass hole says oil could reach $ 150.00 then it goes wild they are just trying to put USA on its knees and our flunkes are letting them do it to hell with our goverment to hell on BUSH AND HIS CRONYS
6-06-2008 @ 2:20PM
joey said...
i say we all only go to one gas station and boycot all the others like everyone in this world use hess or sunoce only but we all have to use only one name and the rest will all suffer let's bring gas prices back to reality
6-06-2008 @ 3:04PM
G. Johnson said...
This speculation by a few groups or individuals is destroying the entire country whether it is airlines, trucking companies, any transportation industry and the American consumer with higher costs for fuel that is not justified by the same increase in demand. Just another greedy get rich quick scam.
6-06-2008 @ 3:32PM
trudy said...
They keep predicting oil at $150 by July 4th it WILL GO THAT HIGH....then they will predict oil at $200 by Labor Day----and IT WILL RISE TO $200!!! What the hell is happening to this country---we have a BALL-LESS, GUTLESS GREEDY PERSIDENT who does NOTHING to help us!!! Can't wait until that bastard is out of office--------SCREW ALL POLITICIANS!!! My vote stays home in November --- NONE OF THEM ARE WORTHY OF ME OR MY VOTE!!! I AM ASHAMED OF THIS GOVERNMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6-06-2008 @ 3:36PM
don franck said...
Want to lower the price of oil, then drill Anwar with a government/private consortium, with limited profits allowed and the oil only for use by US Consumers. Increase the supply and the price will drop. Economics 101. What will the Environmental crazies do that infect the Demcratic Party? Who knows. They deserve the blame for the high price of oil today.
6-06-2008 @ 4:03PM
C. Marcus Parr said...
Seven years ago the price for a barrel of crude oil was $30. Today, it reached a high of $137. Oil not merely doubled or tripled in price during President Bush’s administration, but more than quintupled.
Several factors are at play—the falling value of the US dollar, a diminishing supply (or scarcity) of oil versus rising demand, and speculators in the futures market.
The dollar has lost about 60% of its value against the euro over the last seven years. It has lost even more value against gold and petroleum. When the dollar drops in value against foreign currency, Americans pay more for a barrel of oil on the international market.
Alternatively, when speculators set oil futures at $130 a barrel, we not only pay more at the pump but the US trade deficit increases. Our annual oil import bill has risen from $106 billion in 2006 to approximately $500 billion today. What Bush has labeled “America’s addiction to oil” threatens to transfer the wealth of our great nation to the coffers of the oil producing nations, OPEC, and the oil companies.
What about scarcity, are we running out of oil? We will eventually run out of oil, and some believe we have already passed Peak Oil, a point at which we’ve already used up half the oil in the world. Once Peak Oil is passed, oil production goes down while costs go up, unless new oil fields are discovered and exploited. However, finding and extracting crude has become increasingly difficult for the oil companies. Today, worldwide demand for oil may be outpacing production. The current price reflects scarcity tied to demand, for which oil-dependent economies have felt the “pinch” if not outright hardship.
The rising price for oil is having a negative effect worldwide. Energy prices drive up the cost of producing and transporting all goods, especially food. The United Nations estimates 800 million people are at risk of starvation because the cost of oil increases what people pay for a bag of rice. In America, we are not immune. Most of the food we eat depends on petroleum for production, for fertilizer and pesticides, harvesting and transport. We expend nearly 10 calories of energy to get back one calorie of food energy—mostly because we use oil to subsidize food production and import it from throughout the world.
Are speculators at the root of this problem? According to T. Boone Pickens, legendary Texas oilman, the futures market is not a “bubble” about to burst. Oil futures are rising because of scarcity and high demand, not speculation, he says. George Soros, the hedge fund billionaire, has countered Pickens’ argument by saying the global oil price explosion has been caused in part by commodity futures’ speculation. Mr Soros believes that speculation is exaggerating the “true price of oil” and creating a commodities bubble not unlike the stock market bubble and crash of 1987.
So, who’s responsible for gas prices? No matter which view is right or who is at fault, the world economy runs on gasoline, and we’re burning it faster than we can pump it out of the ground. With rising energy and food costs, the average American consumer is finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet.
6-07-2008 @ 8:52AM
Robert Barr said...
Great posts Peter. You should scream this from the highest mountains! Entire industries (trucking, airlines) are being castrated while big oil records record earnings.
Bush is out front mowing the lawn and McCain is promoting a .42 cent gas tax holiday. At this rate, we will be paying over $5 a gallon, so .42 cents isn't really going to do much!
6-13-2008 @ 9:47AM
ssnake1952 said...
we need to have refineries and screw overseas oil, one the most Powerful countries in the world..I LOVE My Country.. but the Politicians have really screwed up this country..and right or wrong.. Bush told them at a press conferance that they need to do it..We are the numbers, buy at smaller stations and boycott the big boys. but we won't do that.. too out of our way..I Never go to exxon/Mobil.