
The New York Times reports that some in Washington are using the latest economic catastrophe to push Congress to make tax breaks permanent. What these folks don't recognize is that the tax cuts are a big reason why the economy is in such bad shape to begin with. With unemployment spiking to 5.5%, the worst since 1986, and oil prices up a record $11 yesterday to $138 a barrel, it won't be long before you're paying $5 a gallon for gasoline.
And since oil is traded in dollars, its 70% decline since January 2001 from 92 cents to the Euro to its current $1.56 -- has been accompanied by a 475% rise in the price of oil. The $1.3 trillion worth of tax cuts -- 36% of which went to the top 1% -- are contributing to record deficits. In 2008, we'll have a $410 billion deficit and the 2009 figure looks to top $500 billion. And thanks to $3 trillion worth of wars, the U.S. is borrowing $9.4 trillion -- almost double where we were in 2000.
Thanks to these deficits, the U.S. is borrowing 66% of its $14.2 trillion GDP -- and any country borrowing more than 60% is seen by international investors as a credit risk. You'll hear people trying to convince you that deficits don't matter. But deficits are at the core of all the economic problems we face. Republicans used to be seen as the party of fiscal conservatism. But what they've actually done would terrify a prudent banker.
They've cut taxes, built up huge deficits, and borrowed to cover the difference. Now the bill is coming due. And that bill will leave a huge economic challenge for the next president. Your vote in November can determine whether to keep these disastrous policies going for for more years or to change them.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
6-07-2008 @ 8:32AM
Speculator said...
That is one big reason Warren Buffett is a Democrat. Tax cuts have caused huge inequality over the last 5 years. The gap between the bottom 20% of income earner and the top 5% has grown very big since the 1980s. If it continues it cause policial instability long-term.
www.theinvestingspeculator.com
6-07-2008 @ 10:12AM
Bill Newman said...
I don't believe tax cuts hurt anything. It's the overspending by congress that has given us the problems we have. The unemployment rate is fine as
5% of the population won't work and never has in this country and the price of gasoline is due to limited supply, not tax cuts. The "huge inequality" in income is due to people not going to school and learning marketable skills so as to get and keep a job. This country needs to stop taxing productivity while subsidizing slothfulness.
6-07-2008 @ 9:31AM
Hal Kirven said...
I'm writing myself a letter to remind me not to let my child attend Brabson College when she graduates in a couple of years. Cohan must be a DNC board member.
6-07-2008 @ 9:36AM
Christopher said...
Bill, you are an idiot. Frankly, we need to tax the highest earners (those making over 10 million a year) at 80-90% tax rates in order to allow the other people to finally have an increase in the minimum wage.
Also, about the 'price of gasoline' being because of limited supplies.... BULLSHIT. It is NOT because of limited supplies, in fact we are finding more oil around the world everywhere we look, even in places where we thought we had tapped out the supply and where the common consensus was that there wasn't any oil to find.
6-07-2008 @ 10:04AM
John Stien said...
Republicans have run up deficits?? More like 8 years of Clinton running up taxes. The last 8 years have been a result of Clinton's 8 years. How much worse would we be if Gore had won?
Obama? Might as well hand over your wallet now and save time!
Deficit? How many times the republicans tried to reduce spending? Many. But the republicans can't overrule the democrats who control congress. Nor can they seem to get people to understand that the democrats have made their constituents dependent upon the government for things they should be providing for themselves. These are now called "entitlements." Another way to say it is "You owe me this." But the democrat’s leadership says "I keep you dependent on me, you keep me in power to rule over you."
Oil prices? Blame OPEC for limiting oil production to artificially inflate prices.
Tax cuts? If we do not make tax cuts termagant then we can kiss job creation good-bye. If it were not for the leadership of Regan, Bush, and Bush we'd all be worse off than those who suffered through the Great Depression.
6-08-2008 @ 10:03AM
TC said...
Tax cuts,we need more!!If our government were to not allow alot of the unnessary spending on unnessasry thing,hense the war we should NOT even be in,(THANK YOU MR. BUSH).Not allow government vechicles to be used for personal use,you see that all the time in our state,(who foots the bill for filling those tanks?).The oil companies,GREED,GREED,GREED,how can our government allow oil companies to reap the profits that they are on a DAILY basis from the American people?????Our candidates always talk a good game at ellection time(ever notice how the prices of gas goes down as we get closer to the election month??),yet when elected,not one politian can ever protect the American people from the extreme high prices of oil or from the high government spending!!!I believe if America was to take 3-6 months of our oil reserve and use for America and not buy from else where,what would happen to the price of oil then???I believe we are now at somewhere at 97-98% full capaticy.Please someone explain to America WHY such GREED in this country?We are suppost to be the most powerful country and the country of oppurtunity,what the country to most likely take advantage of our own and provide for everyone else in this world,and ALLOW the American people to pay for it. America can't support everyone!!!!!!!!
6-07-2008 @ 11:01AM
Bill Newman said...
Christopher apparently isn't paying attention to real world events and doesn't seem to be educated enough to understand simple economics. It appears he is one of those people I was referring to who doesn't have the skills necessary to compete with actual smart people. The Democrats have kept the oil companies from drilling for the $40 per barrel oil we have in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming and taxing rich people will just have the effect of driving them and their companies out of our country with a loss of jobs.
6-07-2008 @ 10:43AM
Bill Sego said...
Peter Cohan has to be kidding or Babson College needs to put out a full disclosure to trusting parents about the joke that they offer to students in his management classes.
Deficits spending (war, earmarks, and congressional irresponsiblity in spending) drive the deficit.
Thank goodness for tax cuts which have spured small business expansion and growth.
Oil prices are a resultant effect of not monitoring the vast amount of cash that HAS to be invested by fund managers(see congressional testimony of Michael W. Masters, May 20, 2008).
Kill what little incentitive the average man has to glean a capital gain sale or invest in a small business and you'll have what we had back when Peter Cohan elected Jimmy Carter for President (if Peter was even old enough to vote then, which I doubt).
I am more freightened that college youth has people like Peter to learn such dribble from in college.
Heaven help our educational systems if he is the norm.
6-07-2008 @ 11:56AM
TX CHL Instructor said...
Low taxes don't ruin the economy. Government wasting money on things it has no business doing are what is ruining the economy.
6-07-2008 @ 12:25PM
william lindblad said...
Well, I am more with Mr. Newman than anyone else commenting, I certainly am not with Mr. Cohan, the originator. This is an investment page and not a political forum. If we are going to address tax cuts, than it should be bi-partisan. Tax cuts do work and they have been implemented by both parties. However, timing and general state of the economy dictates how well. Given it's present state, a continuance would be in order and there is no such thing as "permanent" in the tax area although it does sound good from the rhetoric front. Bushy is not the brightest president but he does know that something is radically wrong and is doing his best not to wear this mess too. We are where we are do to greed and lack of oversight. Sub prime set this off and it is a snow ball rolling downhill. Perhaps some good will eventually come forth as it will force contentious into resolution. Drilling for oil being in the forefront. We do need to become more energy diverse and current prices are sure to push technology.
It is going to be a long hot summer. Anytime you think that it is bad here - look at the rest of the world. There are many governments that have been subsidizing the price of fuel for years and now are being forced to raise prices at the consumer level. In those places you tend to get civil unrest.
6-07-2008 @ 12:58PM
B. Harrison said...
Have I become totally stupid or what? Temporary tax cuts and changes in the tax Codes are effective, from time to time, in stimulating spending in "normal times" . . . But these are NOT "normal times", and won't be for any time soon.
Our historically unprecedented DEFICT has reportedly devalued the U.S. dollar by 70% since the year 2001. MANY of our financial insitutions are tettering on the verge of bankruptcy, there is certainly a lack of confidence and fatih in our economic markets because of the lack of full disclosure (so, who is going to "invest" in this mess. One might be better off going to Las Vegas and playing roulettte.)
Taxing the wealthy 80% - 90% is unrealistic, maybe 50% might be viable. But the DEFICIT cannot be paid down, to strengthen the U.S. dollar by TAX CUTS at this time.
At the root of all of these problems is the impact of the lack of business integrity and ethics being procticed by corporations, and the government's failure to have basic oversight and regulations in place to ensure the stability and integrity in the markets.
Alan Greenspan's concept in a Free Market "industry self-regulation" has been shown to be a TOATL FAILURE; the man is an "intelligent IDIOT".
6-07-2008 @ 5:05PM
Michael said...
The writer of that article is obviously ultra liberal, scheming, an obvious socialist and appears to be trying to smokescreen the public into believing an incredulous pile of baloney. If the criminal element in Washington which is made up of most of the Senate, the House of Representatives and the employees in their offices were incarcerated or put out as they actually should be without any pension as punishment for their dishonesty would save billions in itself. Billions not alloted to illegal aliens, other welfare, billions not added to military and other bills known as "Pork".... There are dozens of ways if not hundreds of ways to enable this country to run and run in an economically positive way if those running it were honest. They are no more honest than the Ayatolla Khomeini was Jewish. The United States is supposed to be a country where their political representatives serve the people and not extort Trillions in taxes to line their own pockets and those undeserving and yet serving them in other political capacities. I may not have the wording correct, but what happend to a country that has an elected group of servants (politicians) of the people, who are for the people and and supported by the people? The elected in Washington need to have their eyes opened, be prosecuted for what they have done and not done and in the end put out to work for a living and not be allowed to continue to extort the tens of trillions in taxes from the working people of the United States of America.
6-08-2008 @ 1:58PM
Adele Roberson said...
it is really hilarious.
Republicans with their heads up their asses insulting the Democrats and blaming them for everything wrong in this country.
I never knew there were that many idiots in this country.
6-08-2008 @ 2:00PM
roberson said...
Republicans have run up deficits??
************
YES YES YES YES AND YES
6-08-2008 @ 2:06PM
roberson said...
STUPID PEOPLE ALWAYS KILLING THE MESSENGER.
WHEN JIMMY CARTER TRIED TO TELL US BACK IN 1978 WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN IN TWENTY YEARS ALL THE NIN-COM-POOPS LAUGHED HIM OUT OF THE WHITE hOUSE.
YOU CANNOT TELL A DUMB AMERICAN ANYTHING HE DOES NOT WANT TO HEAR.THAT ALSO HAPPENS DURING THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL RECESS.
6-09-2008 @ 11:18AM
John said...
When you cut federal taxes, local taxes go up. Don't believe it, check property taxes and sales tax rates prior to Reagan's big tax cut.
Most tax cutters are con artists and liars. They're like a criminal class.
There have probably been fewer than two real tax cuts in history, and none of us were probably alive when they happened. The economy has done just fine with so few real tax cuts.
6-09-2008 @ 5:01PM
Mike said...
Every time there has been any type of federal tax cut, tax revenues go up. Every time.
6-09-2008 @ 5:19PM
Mike said...
With unemployment spiking to 5.5%, the worst since 1986
The average unemployment rate according to the US Department of Labor in 2003 was 6.0%. And the average in 1986 was 7.0% and the highest I could find was 9.7% in 1982.
6-09-2008 @ 9:06PM
mikesshop123 said...
I receive the tax break money they said would boost the country after they said I didn't get another they said I was to get in the regular taxes. After filing my taxes for what I was told I could file they turned around and said I was not going to get the tax break, then they said I owed the more money and took it out of thr rebate after I sent them a check for what they said I owed. So now they say they owed me the money I sent in and they say they don't know when the money will be sent back to me. I even have the paper work from the IRS saying I was going to be able to file that other tax break they say I can't have until next year. I think they plan on changeing the tax next year so I wont get the money at all. They plan on taking us for a long ride so hang on. The figer they will owe me next year will be $00000.00
6-10-2008 @ 10:10AM
John said...
Each year you have a tax bill. It includes federal, state, and local. When the federal government cuts taxes, state and local tax increases suck it up. It happens every time.
Tax revenues go up because GDP is almost always a positive number. Tax revenues also grew after the Reagan tax cuts because the grown ups in congress, both parties, started immediately adding tax increases to avoid economic catastrophe. You fell for one the biggest cons ever pulled. Learn to use real numbers.
The Bush tax cuts are now in effect. Are they saving the economy? LMAO. Oh I know, some con artist will come along and sell the sheep on one more big tax cut. Then state and local will suck that one off the table too.