McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) shares are trading higher after the company reported that May same-store sales rose 7.7%. Overseas sales were strongest, but US sales rose by 4.3%, while analysts expected only 1%. The company claims its low prices actually boosted sales during the economic slowdown as people flocked to cheaper alternatives. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MCD.After hitting a one-year low of $46.64 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $63.69 in December. MCD opened this morning at $58.37. So far today the stock has hit a low of $58.00 and a high of $59.56. As of 12:45, MCD is trading at $59.19, up $2.24 (3.93%). The chart for MCD looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 8.7% return in just three and a half months as long as MCD is above $50 at September expiration. McDonald's would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money.
MCD hasn't been below $50 since September and has shown support around $58 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late July or early August) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $57 and rising.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent controls a bullish hedged position in MCD.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-09-2008 @ 3:02PM
william lindblad said...
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