World Bank cuts 2008 global GDP growth forecast due to oil, food prices
In January 2008, the bank predicted that global growth would total 3.3% for the year. The global economy grew 3.7% in 2007. Further, the bank now sees 2008 emerging market GDP growth totaling 6.5%, down from its earlier 7.8% forecast.
The bank called high energy and food prices "a major worry" and added that they "are the dominant force behind increased inflation across developing countries."
Also, the World Bank expects the U.S. economy to grow 1.1% in 2008, a downward revision from the bank's earlier 1.9% forecast. Meanwhile, the bank expects Europe's 15-nation euro zone to grow 1.7%, down from the earlier estimate of 2.8%. Japan's economy is expected to grow 1.4%, down from the earlier estimate of 2%.
Further, the World Bank also sees a considerable slowdown in China's economy in 2008, but GDP growth is still expected to remain very strong. The bank now sees China's GDP increasing 9.4%, down from the earlier 11.9% estimate.
Economist David Wang said the World Bank's revised forecast is consistent with other country-specific data he's viewed. "We see this general slowing in global growth precipitated by the slowdown in the U.S. economy and the brake effect of high oil prices," Wang said. Wang predicted that oil prices above $100 per barrel would lower 2008 global growth by 0.3-0.7 percentage points, to 2.5-2.7%. (Wang added that he doesn't have a global growth forecast model with an implied $130 per barrel oil price because he "never thought oil prices would reach that level so soon.")
"The global economy will grow well below capacity in 2008, and 2.7% is about as low as one wants to go for a world made up mostly of emerging markets," Wang said. "Anything below that and we're approaching the equivalent of a stall in the global economy."
2008, 2009 regional forecasts
The World Bank's revised GDP growth forecasts for 2008 and 2009 by region are: Euro zone, 1.7% and 1.5%; Europe and Central Asia, 5.8% and 5.4%; South Asia, 6.6% and 7.2%; Latin America, 4.5% and 4.3%; Middle East and North Africa, 5.5% and 5.3%; and Sub-Saharan Africa, 6.3% and 5.6%.
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