TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the market's a mess, but the S&P oscillator and buyout offers could give an opportunity for trades. Here we are again. Another unfathomable moment to buy stocks.
You have the financials just falling apart at the seams.
Oil and the grains are out of control.
The Fed chairman and the Treasury secretary have declared the worst is over even as we await the demise of a half-dozen banks, and we question the solvency of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). The only stocks working are Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take), Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take), Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take) and a handful of natural gas companies.
It's crazy out there.
And yet my best indicator, the Standard & Poor's oscillator, which you can order from their Web site, is saying you cannot be short here and should be doing some buying. The oscillator, when it has been at minus 5, has called a bottom almost every time in the last decade, plus or minus a day or two, and a percent or even two, and I have long since learned not to see through it.
Look, let's be honest. It is almost impossible to be bullish here. There's nothing good happening at all. But I can make a valuation case for much of this market because of that. Of course, it is anecdotal, but consider today's news story about Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) (Cramer's Take). Sure, the $46.4 billion bid is a 35% premium to the 30-day average, as the Journal points out, but InBev is buying this worldwide company for a song relative to five years ago because of the weak dollar.
There are so many BUDs out there that you have to ask whether we couldn't see more of them. We have had a couple. I expected a torrent and I haven't gotten it. But the point is larger: stocks are cheap, and in euro or yen or zloty or whatever terms, they are dirt-cheap.
No, I am not foolish enough to "like" this market. I am saying I respect my oversold indicators. And I am going to put my spare cash that I have in Action Alerts PLUS -- and I have been raising cash -- to work today and tomorrow because of that oscillator.
Random musings: Obama adviser story says it all about both FNM and Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take), two total ne'er-do-wells. ... If Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) catches a bid today, the market will rock. That's become the key stock. ... Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) boards will be sued, I predict, if they keep these menaces at the helm. ... The CSX (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take) ruling bugs me. If they violated the law, why not just stop them? But Judge Kaplan's real smart, so he must know what he is doing.
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RELATED LINKS:
Anheuser-Busch Shares Frothy on Bid News
How Oil and Water Futures Affect Ag Stocks
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-14-2008 @ 9:20AM
Beltway Greg said...
Alpha Natural Resources ANR is working pretty well too!
Beltway Greg
7-04-2008 @ 5:54PM
jo said...
No wonder we are loosing!