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Five scary stories for Friday the 13th

Gather around the campfire and let me tell you such scary stories Jason's mask would fail to impress you after that.

Of course, the theme that runs in the background of these scary stories is the state of the economy in the U.S., from the housing slump, inflation and soft labor markets to weak dollar, excessive government spending and increasing national debt load and trade gap.

1. Exxon Mobil and Oil

So scariest of all stories is oil. With prices reaching new records nearly daily, gas prices have also zoomed higher, crossing the $4 a gallon mark. Why, then, is Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) exiting the retail gas business. To be sure, BP (NYSE: BP) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) have either indicated taking such measures or have taken them already. Apparently, gas prices haven't been rising fast enough to keep pace, causing margins to narrow and for cents-earned-per-gallon to be dismal.

One would then think it's a good move by Exxon and the other oil giants to get out of the retail gas business, but I have questions. First, it's alarming that companies with revenues in the hundreds of billions of dollar look for ways to make even more money (even if YTD XOM is down 6.4%). Second, and most important, what could it mean for the consumer? As Doug McIntyre suggested, would the price of gas at the pump increase even more after the sale to private owners than when it was sold under Exxon? Scary indeed.

2. Cars and Ford

Related to oil is, of course, cars. Car makers particularly have been the perfect example of the effects of high oil prices on industry, consumer choices and the labor market. Detroit has suffered from a slowdown long before it was felt throughout the U.S. with one of the worst housing market and workers being laid off by General Motors (NYSE: GM), Chrysler, and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F). Why then would Kirk Kerkorian choose to increase his stake in Ford and at such a premium too? Is it any wonder the tender is oversubscribed? What does he know that we don't? If the Big Three's state of affairs isn't scary, I don't know what is.

3. Airlines and U.S. Airways

And from one form of transportation to another. If Ford and GM look in a bad shape, the airlines look even worse, some probably closer to bankruptcy than anyone would like admit. The culprit? Oil. The result? Layoffs, price increases and ridiculous practices. At least the car companies have some restructuring plans already in place. The airlines? Other than reduce the weight on their current airplanes, all they can do is wait for Boeing's (NYSE: BA) new Dreamliner, which is supposedly more fuel efficient. Deliveries of the new jet will not occur before the third quarter of 2009.

It is no wonder U.S. Airways (NYSE: LCC), which may confuse some with today's stock jumping 10%, is actually down nearly 80% YTD. U.S. Airways announced Friday it will cut 1,700 jobs and charge passengers $15 to check their first bag, but that's not all. Other than reducing flights, it will also charge fliers $2 for soft drinks and water, $7 for alcoholic beverages and $25-50 for redeeming frequent flier miles. There are other measures the airline will take that would hurt consumers. I'm not even sure how much these measures could help some of the airlines, but I am sure sad times are ahead for some.

4. Retail and Wal-Mart

With the consumer accounting for nearly 70% of economic activity, retail sales have been closely watched. In May, sales figures surprised economists as the rebate checks worked better than expected. One major beneficiary was the world's biggest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT). Now, have you seen the chart lately? Have you compared it to the S&P 500? Here, let me show you:



What's so scary about this chart you may ask? While not exactly a negative correlation to the broader stock market index, some parts of the chart come pretty amazingly close.
And why is it scary? Few reasons: One is that Wal-Mart has by now proven it is doing well in bad times. Given the stock has been climbing, up over 24% YTD, what does it mean for the market, the economy -- set for more declines? For the past three years Wal-Mart has traded in a $44-$50 range, today it came very close to breaking $60. Could it mean the economy would get even worse? And finally, if you're a Wal-Mart shareholder, what do you wish for? I'll leave others to answer that.

5. Other scary tidbits
  • Is Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) going the way of the Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO)? Is BUD also trying to thwart a good offer for reasons not related to sound business rationale? Is an overblown ego going to ruin yet another sensible merger?
  • Have we seen the last of the financial turmoil? Will there be another Bear Stearns? Why do Lehman (NYSE: LEH), AIG (NYSE: AIG) and KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) -- to name but a few -- insist on scaring us?
  • Can Altria (NYSE: MO)'s Phillip Morris really develop a smokeless cigarette? And how long before we find out the health implications of that one?

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 09:51 AM

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