BloggingStocks

The week in preview -- Fun with economics

Posted Jun 15th 2008 12:30PM by Andrew Horowitz
Filed under: Morgan Stanley (MS), Economic data, Oil, Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Housing

Sure, there are several earnings reports coming that are going to shake, rattle, and roll, the market this week, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), but what about those all important economic releases? Last week, the consumer price index was revealed for May and showed a monthly increase of .6% as energy was HOT once again, and the overall transportation costs rose the most since November 2007. Core inflation was up only .2% and investors liked the number as it calls for the continuation of a "Fed-Pause," which helped the dollar move up for the week.

New Residential Construction (permits) popped last month on an unexpected increase of the multi-family housing starts. Think about it for a minute and you will quickly realize that as families are losing their homes due to the deteriorating economic conditions, they still need live somewhere. So, the increase of 326,000 permits for multi-family housing makes perfect sense. But, don't be fooled by the fact that these are still mixed into the totals and have skewed the overall stats upwards.

Still, the reports have shown difficult conditions as the total starts have hit lows last seen in 1991. Before that, the lows of this level were seen in 1974. Economists over at Economy.com are looking for housing starts to drop again in May down to 985 million. Since the economy has become the real story (aside from the oil horror show), housing is vitally important, as it is really a proxy for the financial fortitude of the average family. Realize that if they are not buying homes, it is because they don't have the funds, cannot get credit and do not have confidence in their financial future.

Perhaps there is one benefit of the lower housing starts. That is the realization that builders are now stuck with a backlog of inventory, and eventually, if they play their cards right, they will be able to come out of this as demand rises. Since they will have worked off their inventory, pricing should stabilize and provide a normal period of recovery. That is a good theory; we will see how it actually unfolds.

On Wednesday, the all important oil and gas inventories will be in focus. There is a real concern that we are well beyond the abilities of the current oil-producing nations to provide for the massive demand. This is released weekly and is watched closely. According to Dismal.com, last week, we saw:

It really doesn't seem that bad, yet it is clear that there is something way out of whack. But is it really that we are going to run out of oil? Maybe there is something to be said for the excessive speculation that has occurred on the ICE, which has been the focus of a recent legislative change that has been in the works for years. Effectively, this will revoke a decade-old law that allowed for certain energy futures to be unregulated by any U.S. agency. It has been an amazing fight and one that seems to be surrounded with much distortion and a great deal of confusion.

This report should create a substantial amount of angst as there has been a huge level of trading in stocks that have anything to do with oil and gas ... and that is just about everything. Take a look at two ETFs to play the range off outcomes: DIG and DUG.

Each of these two are built to track the Dow Jones U.S. Oil and Gas Index. The Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index measures the performance of the energy sector of the U.S. equity market. Component companies include oil drilling equipment and services; coal; oil companies-major; oil companies-secondary; pipelines; liquid, solid, or gaseous fossil fuel producers; and service companies.

Issued by Profunds, these are considered an "ultra" as they will track the index by 200%.

Therefore, the UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DUG) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas. Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DIG) does the exact opposite. So if you are desirous of playing the oil report and have a stomach for volatility, these may do the trick. Be warned, these will trade fast and wild -- like watching a bucking bronco in fast forward.

Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients hold positions in some stocks mentioned as of the publish date.

This week, Leo Laporte and John C. Dvorak are guests on Episode 61 of The Disciplined Investor Podcast.

Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor: Essential Strategies for Success. Now available as an audiobook!

Tags: construction, DIG, Dismal.com, DUG, Economy, Economy.com, Goldman Sachs, GS, housing, Morgan Stanley, MS, oil inventories, Proshares, Ultra

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

All contents copyright © 2003-2008, Weblogs, Inc. All rights reserved

BloggingStocks is a member of the Weblogs, Inc. Network. Privacy Policy, Terms of Service, Notify AOL