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Agrium (AGU): Shares define bullish 'flag'

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is a leading producer and marketer of agricultural nutrients, in North and South America. The firm's plants can produce more than eight million tons of fertilizers per year. These are sold to wholesale distributors and through more than four hundred company retail outlets. Agrium also participates in a joint venture with Repsol YPF (NYSE: REP), operating Argentina's largest nitrogen plant. Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is a major competitor.

The company pleased investors last week, when it raised its Q2 EPS guidance from $1.92-$2.22 to $2.80-$3.00. The Street had been expecting $2.50. Management attributed the positive outlook to strong global crop prices and the resulting solid performances by both its retail and wholesale operations. BMO Capital Markets subsequently reiterated its "outperform" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $125.

The stock popped on the news and has since been defining a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Altogether, brokers recommend the issue with three "strong buys", six "buys" and two "holds". Analysts see a 20% growth rate, through the next year. The AGU Sales Growth rate (34.84%), EPS Growth rate (846.15%), Operating Margin (17.15%), Return on Assets (12.63%), Return on Investment (18.28%) and Return on Equity (28.53%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 72% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $34.62 and $103.67. A stop-loss of $90.00 looks good here. Note that the firm is expected to present Q2 results in early August.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.

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Last updated: October 11, 2008: 07:39 PM

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