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Cosan (CZZ): Double-barreled bet on Brazil and biofuels

"Cosan SA Indústria & Comércio (NYSE: CZZ) is a terrific company that is benefiting from both higher agricultural prices and higher fuel prices," says Mike Burnick in his newly-launched advisory service, Market Shock Trader.

"Sugar-cane based ethanol has been refined for years in Brazil, at a significant cost advantage to other sources of ethanol. In fact, Brazilian ethanol is about 40% cheaper to make than in the U.S. - and costs less than half the price of European ethanol.

"It doesn't require deforestation or the destruction of natural resources to cultivate it. It can be processed and refined without expensive exploration and drilling. And, it produces 5 times the energy output of corn.

"Today, ethanol accounts for 50% of Brazil's total annual automotive fuel consumption, and more than 70% of all new cars sold in the country are flex-fuel capable, able to run either on gasoline, ethanol or some combination of the two.

"And Brazil's ethanol industry has plenty of room to grow for years to come - and plenty of customers demanding its low-cost cash crop. Germany alone uses about 450 million gallons of bio-diesel a year. An estimated 50% of Europe's cars and trucks can run on this bio-fuel.

"With Brazil at the hub of the alternative fuel revolution, Cosan SA Indústria & Comércio (NYSE: CZZ) is the king-of-ethanol. And, it's also the king-of-agriculture in Brazil too. That gives you double-play profit potential as Cosan earns a fortune from both higher sugar prices and booming ethanol demand.

"Cosan is one of the world's largest producers of sugar cane and refiners of ethanol. The firm is Brazil's largest grower and processor of sugar cane.

"The company also happens to be the largest ethanol producer in Brazil, distilling nearly 28 million tons of sugar cane into more than one billion liters of ethanol last year. In addition to alternative fuel production, Cosan also exports about 2 million tons of refined sugar worldwide.

"The company operates 17 sugar mills, two ethanol refineries, two port facilities for exporting ethanol and numerous storage facilities in Brazil.

"Less than one month ago, Cosan pulled off a major coup. It purchased vitally important ethanol distribution assets from none other than ExxonMobil. Cosan snapped up 1,500 Esso-brand filling stations operating in 20 Brazilian states, along with several distribution centers.

"Cosan posted net sales equal to nearly US$1.2 billion and gross profits of US$362 million in its last fiscal year. The company's operating revenues have grown at an astonishing 31.5% compound annually since 2004.

"Yet Cosan still looks undervalued to me. With sales up over 40% last year alone, Cosan trades at a relatively cheap valuation of less than 2 times book value.

"Bottom line: Cosan is an emerging leader in the fast-growing bio-fuel industry. As a top player in the production of both sugar and ethanol, Cosan gives you double-barreled profit potential.

"Before the year is out, I expect Cosan to trade up to a fresh all-time record high above $16 per share. Cosan also trades options, and for my money, that's where the real leveraged profit potential can be found.

"For those comfortable with options trading, we suggesting looking at Cosan's December call options with a strike price of $12.50. These at-the-money options are priced at just over two-bucks per contract. If I'm right about Cosan, and it soars past $16 by December, these options could return 75%."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 09:45 AM

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