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Empire State Manufacturing Index declines in June

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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that manufacturing activity in New York State continued to deteriorate in June, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced Monday.

The general business conditions index fell to -8.7 in June from -3.2 in May. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to register a -0.5 reading in June.

The indexes for new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders were negative and lower than their May levels. The prices paid index remained elevated, falling only slightly below last month's record high.

Also, the prices received index rose markedly and, at 26.7, approached a record level; the future prices received index also rose sharply, reaching a record high of 47.7.

Meanwhile, the employment indexes hovered around zero. Future indexes generally improved only slightly from the relatively low levels of the past several months, although the capital expenditures index rose several points.


In addition, in a survey of manufacturers, 32% of companies reported an increase in overall capital spending in 2008, while 36% a reduction, the New York Fed said. A year ago, in June 2007, 43% of companies reported an increase and just 26% reported a decline. Moreover, in every broad category of spending, respondents in 2008 were more restrained, on balance, in their capital spending than they had been in 2007.

Economic Analysis: A decidedly bearish June Empire State Manufacturing report. Since New York is a key player in U.S. manufacturing and manufacturing a sizable component of U.S. GDP, the stock market is likely to view the continued deterioration in New York conditions as a sign that the U.S. economic malaise is not improving. The U.S. economy is either in a recession or at the weakest growth level possible.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 01:57 PM

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