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Goldman Sachs (GS) beats earnings but warns of capital troubles

GS logoGoldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) shares are opened higher today, but have fallen into negative territory after the company reported a second-quarter profit $2.05 billion, or $4.58 per share, easily beating analysts' expectations of $3.42 per share. However, the company said that it expects financial institutions to have to raise $65 billion more in capital to cover their losses, which is driving shares of GS and most other banks lower. If you think that the stock won't rise by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged trade on GS.

After hitting a one-year high of $250.70 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $140.27 in March. This morning, GS opened at $185.04. So far today the stock has hit a low of $179.14 and a high of $185.89. As of 12:10, GS is trading at $180.94, down $1.15 (-0.6%). The chart for GS looks bearish and improving, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $200 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in five weeks as long as GS is below $200 at July expiration. Goldman would have to rise by more than 10% before we would start to lose money.

GS hasn't been above $200 by more than a few cents since January and has shown resistance around $190 recently. This trade could be risky if economic situation gets better in the next few weeks, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance GS might find at its 200-day moving average, which is currently around $195 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GS.

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 08:32 AM

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