Ackman extends dire predictions to FSA

When word started circulating that hedge fund manager and renowned short-seller William Ackman was set to make public a new short position, a friend and I discussed it with some anticipation. We both hoped that it would be something new and exciting -- ideally a non-financial stock and, at the very least, something other than a bond insurer. Ackman has made headlines with his prescient calls -- and publicity-generating antics -- warning of trouble at Ambac (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA (NYSE: MBI).

Well the name of the company is out and it is indeed another bond insurer. And making it even less interesting, it isn't even a short. He's betting against Financial Security Assurance which, since it's owned by French bank Dexia, can't be shorted. Instead he is buying credit default swaps on the company's bonds.

A Fortune piece discussing Ackman's claims somewhat snidely points out that his long picks aren't doing well lately. Sears Holdings (NYSE: SHLD) and Target (NYSE: TGT) have been weak performers this year. But I think analyzing a stock's performance over a few months completely misses the point -- Ackman does higher quality research than just about anyone else on Wall Street, and it can take the market years to catch up with him. In the case of Amback and MBIA, an analysis of stock charts would made Ackman look like a buffoon for years after he started raising red flags. If Ackman's research is sound -- historically, it generally has been -- patient investors should do quite well following him into Target and Sears. Impatient investors probably won't do well no matter what.