Just call it stagflation, updated for the globalization era.Oil's record, 5-year rise, combined with increasing food costs, have increased inflation, reduced disposable income, and slowed the U.S. economy to a crawl, when combined with the effects of the end of the housing boom.
The above sounds like a prescription for a replay of the 1970s' stagflation era, but is it? Not quite, according to Stephen Cecchetti, professor of economics at the Brandeis University International Business School.
Cecchetti told Bloomberg News Thursday a more-flexible economy, with lower stockpiles of goods, increased fuel efficiency, increased worker productivity, and lower wage increases for employees are among the economic differences separating the 1970s and 2008 U.S. economies. As a result, Cecchetti doesn't see a repeat of the 1970s' high inflation/high unemployment levels.
Economist David H. Wang concurred with the above conclusion, but argued that the two major factors in the nation's enhanced ability to cope with large increases in commodity costs and other negative economic factors are energy efficiency and worker productivity.
"Increased energy efficiency for cars is the main reason the economy hasn't collapsed when gasoline hit $4 per gallon, but the nation has also really benefited from increased heating and cooling efficiency in offices and homes." Wang said. "Increased worker productivity is also a major plus. Simply, technology and training enable each worker to do more, which lowers business costs per unit produced, and that's helping to contain inflation. Without it inflation would be off to the races, as it was in the 1970s."
U.S. economy: Structural issues remain
Still, the above does not mean the U.S. economy is perfectly positioned for the current international business environment, so says economist Glen Langan. Langan agreed with Wang but said the United States will have to address a series of structural economic problems, in order to remain a vibrant, prosperous, and dynamic economy in the decade ahead. For reasons that are partly economic, partly political, the U.S. has delayed investments in education, infrastructure, and energy services -- investments, Langan argues, that will have to occur for the nation to maintain/increase the aforementioned gains in energy efficiency and productivity.
Economic Analysis: The economists neglected to mention health care reform: prudent reform in this area will slow health care cost increases and free-up health care dollars for other productive uses in the economy, further boosting economic growth.










Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-19-2008 @ 6:29PM
william lindblad said...
There is a large error in this evaluation and that is the focus is centered on productivity and not the production thereof. People of todays society have a larger scope of knowledge, but it is mostly limited to the technology that is in place. This is as basic as when humans discovered fire. They still found ways to find food before that evolution and that is my entire point. The people that survived the 30's had much more in the manner of basic skills than those of the 70's and those of this time have less than either. Plain and simple - everyone knows how to use a phone, but only a small group can repair them. We all know how to go to a grocery store, but few know how to preserve food. It is in these times of need that knowing how to obtain firewood and all else that is required to provide heat become a new interest. The same can be said for the home garden and the suppliers of plants and seed just had a boom year. People are people and they know when to develop an interest in their well being.
We are no better prepared than at any other time in the past. If anything, this current mess is new and unique. It is also a worldwide event and making accurate predictions are akin to voodoo.
The last time I threw the bones they indicated more bad times ahead.