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U.S. weekly jobless claims dip, but 4-week average rises

Initial U.S. jobless claims decreased 5,000 to 381,000 for the week ended June 14, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. However, the total was still above the consensus estimate. Claims for the previous week were revised 26,000 higher to 386,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 375,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 3,250 to 375,250. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said the jobless claims picture reflects the tepid U.S. economy. "We're not seeing jobless claims as high as in previous economic slowdowns, but jobless claims are still trending higher, as evidenced by the 4-week average," Dawson said. "We have the slowest of economies that's not creating new jobs but not resulting in mass lay offs, either, so far."

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 7 were in: California, +10,778, Florida, +6,164, Pennsylvania, +5,762, Georgia, +5,452, and Kentucky, +4,966. The largest decreases were in: Wisconsin, -1,382, Mississippi, -557, Alabama, -526, Vermont, -370, and Kansas, -251.

Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims decreased 76,000 to 3.060 million from a revised 3.136 million for the week ended June 7, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis: A generally poor weekly jobless report. The weekly statistic declined, but only due to a 26,000 upward revision in the previous week's statistic, to 386,000. Also, the 4-week moving average continues to rise and is at an elevated level. True, the continuing claims total dipped to 3.060 million, but it's still high -- an indication of the difficultly U.S. adults are having trying to secure new employment. That statistic, combined with an elevated 4-week average, indicates that labor market conditions remain soft -- a decided negative for the U.S. economy. Still, look for the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates when it meets next Wednesday, and tip the balance of risk toward rising inflation in its statement.

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Last updated: August 20, 2008: 09:36 AM

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