Gadling's resident pilot explains what life in the cockpit is like

AOL Money & Finance

Western Union (WU) soars on guidance, buyback plan

WU logoWestern Union (NYSE: WU) shares are trading higher today after the company said fiscal-2008 earnings will likely be in higher end of the range of $1.25 to $1.29 per share previously forecast, above analysts' estimates of $1.27 per share. WU also approved a plan to repurchase $1 billion in common stock. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WU.

After hitting a one-year low of $15.00 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $24.83 in December. WU opened this morning at $24.35. So far today the stock has hit a low of $24.08 and a high of $25.45. As of 10:35, WU is trading at $25.43, up $2.27 (9.8%). The chart for WU looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bull-put credit spread below the $20 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just five months as long as WU is above $20 at November expiration. Western Union would have to fall by more than 21% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

WU hasn't been below $20 by more than a few cents since October and has shown support around $22.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out 7/22) don't match their guidance. but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $22 and rising.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in WU.

Related Posts

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+494.138,046.42
NASDAQ+68.231,384.35
S&P 500+47.59800.03

Last updated: November 22, 2008: 10:59 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

BloggingStocks Featured Video

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

AOL Business News

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

Sponsored Links

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance