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An analyst thinks Viacom can afford the loss of DreamWorks

Steven Spielberg's DreamWorks baby is preparing to leave Viacom (NYSE: VIA). That sounds bad, doesn't it? I mean, Viacom should, in theory, be freaked out about losing the star asset.

Yet, an analyst working at JP Morgan has a different take on things. According to Bloomberg, Imran Khan thinks that DreamWorks may be perceived as an expensive business asset. He pointed out that the expenses associated with DreamWorks helped drive a 22% decline in operating income for Viacom's film division in 2007. He further pointed out that films with more modest budgets will aid in generating better returns and will, in fact, reduce the risk of investing in the movie business.

Khan is absolutely correct on his call. I've been talking about the need to reduce film budgets for a long time now, probably to the point where people are sick of me, so I'm always glad when I read an opinion such as this. Only problem is, will the studios listen? Well, they should. Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Sony (NYSE: SNE) would all benefit from increased financial restraint when it comes to the business plans of their respective film units.

When DreamWorks does eventually finalize a plan for an exit, I don't think Viacom shareholders have anything to worry about. As Douglas McIntyre mentioned in a recent post, the loss of the DreamWorks team may not mean much considering that we live in a period where stars and brands came can out of the social-networking ether at any point in time. DreamWorks is obviously a stellar asset, and Spielberg is nothing less than an incredibly gifted mogul who can bring in the revenues, but if the loss of DreamWorks has a positive effect on shareholder value, then Viacom's management should welcome it and leverage the event for all its worth. Learn from it, impose discipline on movie budgets, and move forward.

Viacom needs to do all it can to get its stock on better footing. It's now at a 52-week low. Lowering movie budgets and reducing the costs of its film division should be a priority. DreamWorks no longer is.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 21, 2008: 08:37 PM

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