Greenspan says financial market turmoil may extend into 2009


Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes financial market turmoil that disrupted the bond market and created liquidity concerns may extend into 2009, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

However, Greenspan said the Fed's efforts in March to revive credit have reduced instability. "Things do at this particular stage look a little bit better," Greenspan told Bloomberg News via a conference call, but added that financial doldrums are likely to linger a "good number of months or into next year."

Further, when asked if the U.S. economy was in a recession, Greenspan said, "We are on the brink," Reuters reported Tuesday.

Greenspan's remarks occur one day before the now Ben Bernanke-led Fed announces it interest rate decision, on Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. EDT. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates the same, while in its accompanying statement also striking a balance between concern over rising inflation and a pronounced economic stall.

In an effort to jump-start the U.S. economy slowed by the nation's worst housing slump in a generation, the Fed has cut short-term interest rates by 325 basis points to 2% since September 2007.

Greenspan: U.S. inflation pressure growing


The notoriously-opaque and taciturn Greenspan did not comment specifically on monetary policy Tuesday, but did note that inflation pressure is growing in the U.S. economy. He said "... significant pressures are coming from oil and food, but they are none the less real" and that "... unless the central bank leans against them ... you will get a highly unstable inflation environment," Reuters reported Tuesday.

Economic Analysis: Greenspan was expansive regarding global and U.S. macroeconomic headwinds, but characteristically cryptic regarding monetary policy. However, I'll interpret his comments referring to a potentially highly unstable inflation environment as his signal to financial players that monetary policy has to tighten at some point to put a lid on U.S. inflation. That's not to state that the Bernanke-led Fed is likely to increase interest rates Wednesday -- it won't -- but a rate hike almost certainly will occur in the fall after the Fed's summer break.

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