Ford (NYSE: F) shares are falling today after Goldman Sachs cut his price target on the stock to $5 from $8. The broker maintained a "neutral" rating on Ford, but moved General Motors (NYSE: GM) to a sell. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on Ford.After hitting a one-year high of $9.70 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $4.95 in March. This morning, F opened at $5.07. So far today the stock has hit a low of $4.94 and a high of $5.16. As of 12:30, F is trading at $5.03, down $0.22 (-4.2%). The chart for F looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $6 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in three months as long as F is below $6 at September expiration. Ford would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
F was above $6 as recently as early June, but has dropped sharply and shown resistance around $5.20 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late July) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by fewer people buying expensive cars and trucks that do not get great mileage.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in F.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-26-2008 @ 4:53PM
Linda Dorfmont said...
I just picked up some more Ford today. It pays dividends and I don't see any police cruisers, sheriff's cars or the mayor driving Chevys. They got a lock on the municipal market and a good share of taxi cabs in the area. I'm guessing the rest of the country is similar.
6-27-2008 @ 12:08PM
jpdr1100 said...
My state is switching over to Chrysler police vehicles (Dodge Chargers). NYC is thick with minivan taxis. I wouldn't buy Ford stock thinking they have any lock on commercial cars. And they are looking to drop the Crown Vic ASAP anyway.
6-27-2008 @ 3:47PM
jpdr1100 said...
In addition Linda, Ford canceled its dividend two years ago.
You might have wanted to do a bit more research before you bought.
7-01-2008 @ 9:52AM
yaron said...
Lina F is a good buy @ this lavel .
i loaded F & buy a lot more @ this lavel
mast have the nerves to hold it as it going
to go down & up .....