MBIA's downgrade will cost it $7+ billion

Moody's Investor Services' recent downgrade of MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) from Aaa to A2, a five notch drop, will cost MBIA more than $7 billion. MBIA is the country's leading insurer for municipal bonds and stable corporate bonds such as utility bonds. Due to increasing uncertainty regarding MBIA's mortgage related investments, Moody's judged MBIA to have only limited financial flexibility to address continued deterioration of its mortgage related portfolio, which has already taken a cumulative loss in excess of $2 billion.

MBIA must come up with $2.9 billion to cover potential termination payments in Guaranteed Investment Contracts (GICs). The company must also pony up $4.5 billion more to meet collateral posting requirements for these GICs. MBIA senior management insists it has more than $25 billion in assets, of which $15 billion is available to satisfy these collateral requirements.

So who do you believe? Both Moody's and S&P downgraded MBIA. The company's senior management says things are more or less fine. Clearly investors are backing Moody's and S&P. The stock closed on 6/25 at $4.91, and may be headed to its 52-week low of $4.25. MBIA's 52-week high was $68.98, but we shall not see numbers like that for many a day.