Techs -- you haven't seen the bottom yet

Minyanville Professor Adam Katz dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

I've said it before: the second quarter is going to be the inverse of the first. Expectations going in were simply too high.

What I find interesting is that Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) have all taken down guidance due to the sluggishness they're starting to see in their businesses.

What the Street seems to be ignoring is that the dollar has been crushed for over a year now, which means that the currency tailwind is only getting weaker as the year drags on. If one uses $1.55 euro per dollar as a benchmark, the second-quarter effect was a 14% year-over-year currency tailwind.

In the third quarter, that drops to 10%; in the fourth, it will drop to 5%. Add in macroeconomic headwinds -- along with the fact that credit markets have been pushed back into a state of mild panic -- and it's a surefire recipe for a very tumultuous back half of the year.

I'm looking hard for reasons to be optimistic, but they seem to be thin on the ground. In the information technology (IT) sector, at least, we'll likely see a meaningful budget flush at the end of the year - if only because they'll be cut in a big way starting in 2009. This means that IT managers, if they even think they might need anything over the next year or so, need to use or lose whatever's left in their 2008 budgets come the fourth quarter.

This will create an environment where people will be calling the bottom for IT in the fourth quarter - but it's more likely to be the last hurrah before the bottom drops out.

Position in RHT