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Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) has an interesting weekend coming up. The new Pixar film, Wall-E, opened today. While everyone expects it to be a hit, no one knows yet how big a hit it will ultimately be.
Pixar, of course, is a major brand in computer-generated cartoons. Its major competition is DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). The latter's most recent hit, Kung Fu Panda, opened earlier this summer box-office season with a $60.2 million first-weekend take, according to Boxofficemojo. Last year, Ratatouille debuted with a first-weekend take of $47 million. In my mind, for Wall-E to please shareholders and show Disney that its Pixar brand is a reliable money machine, the animated feature needs to do at least $60 million. It can't do anywhere near the Ratatouille flick since that was an example of weak opening performance, in my opinion.
I read a great review on Wall-E at the Hollywood Reporter. The author heaps praises on the film and says that Pixar's streak of success is intact. That's pretty pleasing. Yet, the review also worries me to some extent (I'm a Disney shareholder). The author says that there isn't a lot of dialogue in the picture (I guess the robot characters don't speak) and that it might be such a smart project that some moviegoers might not fully appreciate it. In this competitive timeframe, that doesn't make me feel good. I'd rather the film be simple blockbuster material for the popcorn crowd. I don't want the young kids in the audience to feel their attention spans being strained in the least. I'm not looking for art in this case. I just want my company to make as much money as possible.
Will Wall-E be number one this weekend, beating out the likes of Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Get Smart and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal picture Wanted? Without a doubt, Wall-E will rise to the top of the multiplex charts. But will it make $60 million? I have my doubts. Considering Ratatouille's box-office performance in its opening days, and the fact that, from my own anecdotal checks, there doesn't seem to be a huge interest yet in the Wall-E merchandise, I wouldn't be surprised if the sci-fi cartoon ends up with a lower haul.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-27-2008 @ 2:55PM
Chip said...
I don't know why you own Disney stock, unless you're shorting it. You want a "simple blockbuster material for the popcorn crowd?" in order to get a one-weekend high?
A smart investor would want a complex blockbuster that will delight audiences decades into the future, like all Pixar films will. They can release it and merchandise again and again, in the new movie formats and generate hundreds of millions for years to come.
Are you not aware that "Cars" is selling billions worth of merchandise for Disney each year? From a film that's a couple of years old ...
I doubt Dreamworks will be doing that with "Antz" or "Madagascar" or "Kung-Fu Panda."
7-03-2008 @ 10:27AM
kickstand said...
Pixar is smart enough to know that long-term devotion comes when people are a little bit surprised or even challenged at the movie theater. That's what distinguishes the Pixar brand from most other film studios, and that's what generates legions of devoted Pixar fans. People will be loving and enjoying and spending on Wall•E and related items for decades after they've forgotten most of the "simple blockbuster ... for the popcorn crowd"-type films.
7-03-2008 @ 11:00AM
Dave Barnes said...
Let's see.
$63,087,526 opening weekend according to Box Office Mojo.
Get Smart is bombing.
7-03-2008 @ 11:07AM
candlejack said...
I echo the above comments. The best way to make far more money over the long term is to make a great film. "Simple blockbusters for the popcorn crowd" aren't something that people buy again and again and again over the years, and plop down millions of dollars for merchandise of, long after the movie is out.
Besides maybe shrek, or ice age, who is buying merchandise and dvds of any 'cg' movie made more than 2 years ago?
When a movie is eminently forgettable, it also means you stop making money from it. And you can make a LOT of money from the long tail on a 'great film' - just ask George Lucas.
7-03-2008 @ 6:11PM
Tom said...
I'm not sure if you were trying to suggest that Ratatouille was a flop, because on the whole it was not. It performed very well internationally and with a gross of $620 million it became the 3rd highest grossing out of the 8 Pixar movies (almost tying The Incredibles for 2nd place with Finding Nemo on 1st place).