It's a European anti-inflation campaign that will require boldness, creativity, and patience.
That was how one economist described a potential monetary policy tack by the European Central Bank (ECB) for the quarters ahead.
London-based economist Mark Chandler told BloggingStocks that typically, a central bank will increase interest rates to fight inflation. Paradoxically, he's not recommending that the ECB do that now.
"It is a bit of a paradox, but if the ECB raises interest rates it may have the effect of, in fact, increasing inflation," Chandler said. (Euro-zone inflation is presently running at about a 3.7% annualized rate -- well above the ECB 2.0% limit, according to Eurostat.)
Contain commodities prices, contain inflation
Here's how an interest rate hike may hurt inflation's cause: a rate hike would put the euro, once again, in a superior investment position versus the U.S. dollar, causing the already-weak dollar to fall more, Chandler said. As the dollar continues to fall, commodity prices -- including oil -- will continue to rise, as investors seek to preserve purchasing power of the decreased value of dollar-denominated commodities, and as a general inflation hedge.
That fact, combined with Europe's dependency on oil and other commodities, will result in higher inflation in Europe -- i.e., higher inflation despite an ECB interest rate hike.
Chandler grants that there are other factors besides the weak and falling dollar that are increasing inflation in Europe, and in the United States, as well, but there's "incontrovertible evidence that energy prices and other commodity rises have pushed up inflation by at a percentage point or so" on both sides of the Atlantic, he said. The commodity-based inflation is looking eerily similar to the 1970s stagflation period, also characterized by record oil prices and rising commodity prices.
The best inflation fighting policy for now? Chandler says if the ECB maintains present interest rates, and the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to raise rates slightly, "the dollar will begin to recover, commodity prices will ease or even drop substantially, and Europe's inflation will fall," Chandler said. "It should be the ECB policy for at least the next two quarters. The sooner everyone recognizes this nexus between the falling dollar and rising inflation, the sooner we're going to come to grips with it."
Economic Analysis: Let's hope ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is listening. Economist Chandler makes a strong case that a high-interest euro currency is only going to push the dollar even lower, helping to push commodity prices, including oil, further into the stratosphere. Conversely, Chandler's argument suggests a rate freeze by the ECB and a Fed hike or two would begin to reverse the dollar's slide. It's also a textbook example of why, in the globalization era, major central banks need to coordinate monetary policy, to the extent possible, to achieve the best possible outcome for the global economy.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-28-2008 @ 5:36PM
william lindblad said...
Chandler has a point and may even be correct, however Trichet has always been a hawk. That 3.7 is B.S. as it is averaged. It's just like our CPI, exclude energy and food and things don't look too bad. It is also not reality.