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So, you want to short the market? Be careful

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With the market looking just plain awful these days, and with the theory of recession becoming more and more concrete as the dour days pass, the concept of shorting equities is gaining popularity, at least from a headline point of view. Here's an article that talks about utilizing ETFs to go short. My colleague Timothy Sykes also discussed shorting in a recent piece of his own. Both of these articles bring up excellent points, and like Tim, I don't feel there is anything unpatriotic about betting against stocks, whether they are rising or falling. We're a capitalist society, and the trading spoils should go to the winners, whether the winners be long or short.

However, I urge all individual investors out there to think before they short. Don't take betting against a company or a market average lightly. The problem with shorting now is that it might be too late. The time to have purchased, say, the Proshares Ultrashort Dow 30 (AMEX: DXD) might have been a week ago. Remember that shorting is not a long-term idea, no pun intended. Going long is, so you're essentially going to become a market-timer when you invest in a short fund. There is nothing inherently wrong about trying to hedge yourself in a downward-spiraling environment, but make sure you understand that you are making a guess about the direction of stock prices. That's a tricky endeavor at best.

One thing you must avoid doing is shorting individual stocks. I think it's safer to short averages than it is to short companies. Again, if you're really sophisticated, you can do what you want, but do you have the guts to short a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)? Or what about a Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT)? A Citigroup (NYSE: C)? These are all stocks that I believe may be going lower in the short-term, but they all pay dividends, which the short-seller is still responsible for. Plus, at some point, the dividend yields will signal to investors that a bottom could be in. Besides, with short-themed ETFs around, there's really no reason to literally borrow shares and sell them into the market. There's also the method of buying put options to take advantage of a downtrending equity, so you're covered by that technique, too.

Shorting a market that seems to be on its last legs is no different than going long when a market seems immortal. You need to sell into strength and buy into weakness. When this market has a high triple-digit rally sometime in the summer (and I'm sure it will at some point), that would be the time to enter one of these short ETFs if you believe that the market will revert to its downtrending ways. Now, however, might be a gamble.

In conclusion, let me say that shorting is fine so long as you understand the risks. You're becoming a market-timer at a time when timing the market is hellishly difficult. Personally, I think we'll eventually get close to 11,000, and I myself have been thinking about shorting the Dow through an ETF with a tight stop in case I'm wrong. But, I probably won't end up doing it, simply because it may be too late.

Disclosure: I own Coke, GE, and Newcastle Investment; positions can change at any time.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-52.988,130.19
NASDAQ-0.571,751.98
S&P 500-4.95877.73

Last updated: July 10, 2009: 01:31 PM

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