The news couldn't get much worse. Commodity prices keep soaring, consumer confidence is in the gutter, inflation has reared its ugly head, the US dollar loses value by the day and each day we read of more company layoffs. With all this seemingly endless stream of negativity the question is if now is the time to start buying stocks?
There is an old investing adage that says that you should invest when there is "blood in the streets." There is no doubt that it takes some serious courage to buy stocks at this point, but if you are a long term investor, you have to think that the tide will turn at some point in the not too distant future. I know many of you will say that we haven't even gotten close to hearing the worst of the news. That we are in store for consumer bankruptcies, and maybe a large bank or two to fail. My point is that the market is already pricing that in. Or at least most of that has been priced in. Even stocks like Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) have fallen to levels that they could be considered value stocks as opposed to growth stories. Stocks just seem cheap.
No one can predict if the market will drop another 15% from our current levels. What is indisputable is that the market is selling at a large discount to where we were eight months ago. While some of the sell-off is justified, keep in mind that the market generally overshoots both when it rises and when it falls.Then it finds a middle ground.
With all of today's bad news, maybe it's time to back up the truck and start buying stocks.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-30-2008 @ 9:28AM
Colin said...
If one is investing for the long term, then doesn't convention wisdom say it's *never* the wrong time to buy?
I just sunk some money into the stock market a few weeks ago without any consideration at all for the health of the market. Over 10+ years, why does it matter?
6-30-2008 @ 11:54AM
savant said...
yes, buy when blood is running in the streets, but you still got to do your homework and pick good under valued companies...
6-30-2008 @ 1:10PM
David Huston said...
Heaven's no, it's not time to buy; it's time to put your cash in the mattress.
7-01-2008 @ 9:19AM
Vincent said...
Get your money out and put it into gold and silver, inflations is the fed's only option.