No matter what any CEO, analyst, "guru", "market expert", strategist, fund manager, trader or message board poster says (few show all their trades and investments like me, nor are they up 60% in 2008, see details here), never try to catch a falling knife. Before I list all the current ones, I really have to pound it into your heads that buying these things in hugely uncertain -- and possibly disastrous -- times like these is not only dangerous, it's just plain irresponsible.
Here are some current falling knives:
- General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)
- General Motors Corp (NYSE: GM)
- Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C)
- Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER)
- Washington Mutual Inc (NYSE: WM)
- Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
- American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG)
Now, I don't want to hear those "I'm a long-term investor in blue-chip stocks" and "these are quality companies trading at discount prices"-type comments. While it's possible these stocks will bounce, the risk-reward ratio is downright awful here, just as its been for the past several months (as I've been warning in posts like this and this).
While some people are calling for Dow 11,000 or 10,000, the majority of people out there seem to think this is just a brief setback for our grand country, inevitably bound to rebound in 2009 and beyond.
That's just plain silly. We've committed so many economic sins and partaken in so much leverage and excess, it's bound to come crashing down all around us. So, why not now, especially now that all the variables have aligned to created the perfect economic storm?
Don't get me wrong. Just as I said way back in early March, I have no idea nor do I really care if we're going to have a financial collapse.
What matters to me is getting investors to stop thinking so traditionally. Recognize that 50% of stocks fall each year (your odds of success stink!), this dip could be different and the limited short and medium-term upside in these names does not warrant you hard-earned capital.
Of course you could learn short selling (as I said here and demonstrated here), but for those of you not comfortable with that strategy, consider buying only stocks breaking out to new highs -- stocks like Hercules Offshore Inc. (NASDAQ: HERO), FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR), Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN) (which I recommended back in April here), China North East Petroleum (OTCBB: CNEH) and Challenger Energy Corp. (AMEX: CHQ).
Disclosure: Long CNEH.
Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-30-2008 @ 12:50PM
CV Kirkpatrick said...
Wall Street Spoilers. Why not just shut up for a while. I think the "small investors" are just sad beyond comprehension. Self-fulfilling prophecy abounds. Now you are all saying the same thing! The American era of small investors participating in the financing of American businesses has ended - only the "so called" professionals dare to enter the market. See what you have done!
6-30-2008 @ 7:56PM
azarrow said...
"Just as I said way back in early March, I have no idea nor do I really care if we're going to have a financial collapse."
What sort of a person would make such a statement, while millions of people are watching their savings go down the drain??
6-30-2008 @ 8:21PM
tim said...
Azarrow--
The kind of person whose income isnt tied to the economy whatsoever and s tired of all the dumb money, excess and leverage....aka maybe its time for a cleansing
Tim
http://www.timothysykes.com
6-30-2008 @ 8:26PM
Ronald Kangas said...
The time to buy stocks is when they are selling cheap. The time to buy is when you can buy good companies selling at a fraction of their high point. At present we have decent companies selling for 20 to 40 percent of their highs but the best companies are still only down 20 to 30 percent. I think we will see the market go down further. But its almost time to buy.