If you believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a leading indicator of economic conditions six to nine months ahead, Tuesday's Dow activity is not good news.
The Dow officially entered bear market territory when a Tuesday morning decline drove the world's most followed stock market average beyond the level indicating a bear market -- down 20% from the October 9, 2007 high of 14,165.
What exactly is a 'bear market'?
Technical analysts, economists, and others argue that a 10% decline -- called a correction -- is a normal pull-back or pause in a bull market, a market where most stocks are likely to rise.
However, a 20% or greater decline is not healthy. Technical analysts say it indicates investors and traders are not simply taking short-term profits, but are concerned about the prospect for stocks in the quarters ahead -- three to nine months out -- and are exiting the market, in favor (historically) of bonds and cash.
For the above reason, 20% declines are usually interpreted by market advisors and participants as a sign that stocks are likely to be under pressure in the months ahead.
Bear market's cause: sluggish U.S. economy
What's at the root of this bear market? Or, why is the Dow falling? Economist David H. Wang said "it doesn't take an economist to figure it out. The U.S. economy is not doing too well."
"The United States is experiencing its worst housing slump in a generation, gas prices are above $4 a gallon, food prices are rising, corporate profits are down, there's little or no job growth and people are concerned about more layoffs. These indicators point to tougher times ahead for the U.S. economy, and the market is reflecting that," Wang said. "Corporate earnings are also likely to be lower in Q2 and Q3 on a year-over-year basis, and as profits sink, so the Dow will sink, usually."
Economist Glen Langan concurred with Wang, and said statistics relating to typical consumers do not provide a great deal of confidence for Wall Street to push shares higher. "A lot of it comes back to declining disposable income. Middle America is being pressured by increasing costs for essential items all around them, particularly energy and food, and it's substantially lowered disposable incomes," Langan said. "Wall Street sees this, and knows earnings can not increase without a robust consumer base, so it's taken shares lower."
Further, Wang added that investors and traders should not be deluded into thinking a bear market is unjustified, because the U.S. is not in a recession, technically, but is still registering very low GDP growth. "Slow growth can cause enormous damage to the United States. The U.S. needs 2% or better GDP growth for a healthy economy," Wang said. "With slow growth, unemployment continues to rise, mortgage bankruptcies will rise, and so will the federal budget deficit. A slow growth economy can easily lead to a bear market, which is what we are witnessing today."











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-02-2008 @ 1:33PM
Bill Feldman said...
I would also suggest that such a drop reinforces many of the negatives in this market. Consumers see their retirement accounts and net worth shrinking, they reduce consumer spending and consumer optimism. Consumer spending drives 70% of the economy.
7-04-2008 @ 4:22AM
isaac said...
I am so sick of hearing about the doom and gloom. I am a finacial advisor that has to deal with the "bear market" everyday. If everyone is staying home tell me this...Why (due to the fact that every site was full) did my friends have to drive all over Utah to find a place to park their motorhome for memorial day. this was during myrecent trip to zion from vegas and i saw all kinds of trailers from 5th wheels to motorhomes. i also experienced trying to find an open campsite to crash at. yeah we all know prices are high, but why cant the media cover people who are going on thier vacation anyway and it's not bothering them? Yet they have to broadcast everyone who is having a hard time to make things look worse....