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Starbucks: Will store closings lift company's fortunes?

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I hemmed and hawed when I saw Jennifer Openshaw's piece on MarketWatch a few weeks ago; her opinion was that Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) would recover much of its lost value in these past several months of sluggish sales, rising milk costs and slipping coolness, no matter what the naysayers, say. Her argument: that Starbucks was great because of its atmosphere and general quality standards in coffee. While I certainly agree that Starbucks is still an attractive "third place" and would pick Pike Place brew every time over McDonald's or Dunkin Donuts coffee, I hesitated. Had management already made too many mis-steps? Had hubris got the best of the 'Bucks?

The latest news; that Starbucks management has plans to close 600 stores in the U.S. this year; could be an indication of positive things in the company's stock price. It certainly had traders in after-hours activity eagerly snapping up shares, sending 72 cents, or 4.6%, to $16.34 around 2 a.m. I'm always leery, though, of a huge strategy reversal such as this. In my analysis of Starbucks' financial statements, the company spends about $300,000 to start a new store, and this is largely funded through cash. Management regularly offers old furniture and equipment to its high-ranking employees when upgrading or shutting down a store, so it's unlikely that much of the cost will be recouped. Doug McIntyre noted further that Starbucks will continue to pay more millions in lease costs; the company is known for locking up prime real estate with serious long-term lease agreements. Sure, the loss won't affect the cash balance much, and the charge will be "one-time," so the financial picture will still look rosy in a year when the charge has dropped into "historical financial statements." Investors don't look back.

But by acknowledging that some $180 million in costs, not to mention the hundreds of millions probably spent to train and employ staff at these locations, was a big waste of money, Starbucks management is owning up to a future of slow growth.
The golden (or greenish?) child of the late 90s, the one who could never miss a month of rising same-store sales, that Starbucks has gone. In its place is a mature retail company who got way too excited about its plans for world domination, what with music studios and movie promotions and a whole line of children's products (now wiped from the shelves) and its own recipe cards and, what is this, Boogie Nights or Sesame Street or The Food Network? Starbucks hasn't known who it is for the past five years.

Has Starbucks now finally picked its major? Not the ubiquitous Starbucks-on-every-corner, not the omni-cultural center, not the indoor play park, not Bed Bath and Beyond -- no, the coffee shop where you go to meet everyone. Starbucks has always got all A's in atmosphere. It's got to hit the books on good coffee and consistency and friendly staff to win its customers back; but it's got to somehow return to the achievement of speedy profit margin growth to win its investor fan club back. And that doesn't seem likely in a climate of rising food prices and regular American coffee lovers who are giving up lattes to make up for the ever-shrinking wallet.

At this price, the stock looks cheap; market capitalization is about 1.2 times revenue, and the P/E ratio is around 17x. I'll bet we have further down to go, though, when Wall Street starts counting up the losses and when Starbucks management starts offering up a guess at some future numbers.

I believe in the brand loyalty as much as Jennifer Openshaw does, but I'm skeptical about whether Schultz will keep a solid handle on the company's strategy over the next 10 years. I see bigger bargains in my foodie stock universe (like Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI), for one) and, while I'm not selling Starbucks today, I'm also not buying.
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Last updated: July 04, 2009: 02:42 PM

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