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Bankruptcy for one of the Big Three?

I was actually in Detroit on Monday. I'm not going to write about the urban decay and the deterioration of the city. Many have researched and documented this far better than I ever could. But even in my short three-hour visit, the evidence was all too clear. Personally, I think Detroit has more character than many other richer and far more maintained and manicured cities. Even abandoned and in shambles, many of the buildings are architectural gems. Perhaps because one can still see the glorious past through the ruins, that it is so affecting. Or, as the website names them, they are The Fabulous Ruins of Detroit.

It is for this reason that the recent talk of bankruptcy for one of the Big Three has been so disturbing.

This week has been very busy for automakers, starting with June car and truck sales reported on Tuesday. General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) reported an 18.2% drop in sales, which was actually better than expected, and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) a drop of 27.9%. Meanwhile, Japan's Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) posted a 21.4% sales decline. GM shares actually got a boost from the sales figures, but that didn't last long.


On Wednesday, Merrill Lynch downgraded GM shares to Underperform from Buy and warned that the company was burning through cash faster than investors realize. Merrill said in a note that "Bankruptcy is not impossible if the market continues to deteriorate and significant incremental capital is not raised." According to Merrill, GM will need to raise $15 billion in capital to fund its operations for the next two years. This caused the stock to drop below $10, to levels not seen since 1954! Meanwhile, Ford shares are trading well below $5, also a multi-decade low.

Today, Thursday, GM and Ford stocks are rebounding over 3.1% to $10.29 and over 3.9% to $4.53, with slightly more than hour of trading left. But today JPMorgan wrote that automakers could face liquidity issues. While the overall picture painted by JPMorgan looks more bleak, the two analysts there say GM and Ford actually have options.
GM could, for example, secure some of its more profitable international operations to issue debt. Ford could sell Volvo and its Mazda stake if it needs to raise cash. Chrysler could sell its Jeep, minivan or Ram franchises. These aren't such great options, and Ford definitely fares better on that department, but options nonetheless. Meanwhile, their restructuring efforts are gaining steam with only today Bloomberg reporting that GM may sell new mini-cars to U.S. buyers. Let's hope such measures aren't too late.

There almost seems no way to escape a bankruptcy of one of the Big Three, and as much as I've been on automakers' cases for a while now for not reading the market right and not seeing what many have plainly seen, I still hope they could find a way to rebound from this situation somehow. Bankruptcy of such a big company will affect the local economy even more. And bloggers really don't need to have more ruined building to add to their Flickr photostream.
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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 01:51 PM

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