I was actually in Detroit on Monday. I'm not going to write about the urban decay and the deterioration of the city. Many have researched and documented this far better than I ever could. But even in my short three-hour visit, the evidence was all too clear. Personally, I think Detroit has more character than many other richer and far more maintained and manicured cities. Even abandoned and in shambles, many of the buildings are architectural gems. Perhaps because one can still see the glorious past through the ruins, that it is so affecting. Or, as the website names them, they are The Fabulous Ruins of Detroit.It is for this reason that the recent talk of bankruptcy for one of the Big Three has been so disturbing.
This week has been very busy for automakers, starting with June car and truck sales reported on Tuesday. General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) reported an 18.2% drop in sales, which was actually better than expected, and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) a drop of 27.9%. Meanwhile, Japan's Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) posted a 21.4% sales decline. GM shares actually got a boost from the sales figures, but that didn't last long.
On Wednesday, Merrill Lynch downgraded GM shares to Underperform from Buy and warned that the company was burning through cash faster than investors realize. Merrill said in a note that "Bankruptcy is not impossible if the market continues to deteriorate and significant incremental capital is not raised." According to Merrill, GM will need to raise $15 billion in capital to fund its operations for the next two years. This caused the stock to drop below $10, to levels not seen since 1954! Meanwhile, Ford shares are trading well below $5, also a multi-decade low.
Today, Thursday, GM and Ford stocks are rebounding over 3.1% to $10.29 and over 3.9% to $4.53, with slightly more than hour of trading left. But today JPMorgan wrote that automakers could face liquidity issues. While the overall picture painted by JPMorgan looks more bleak, the two analysts there say GM and Ford actually have options. GM could, for example, secure some of its more profitable international operations to issue debt. Ford could sell Volvo and its Mazda stake if it needs to raise cash. Chrysler could sell its Jeep, minivan or Ram franchises. These aren't such great options, and Ford definitely fares better on that department, but options nonetheless. Meanwhile, their restructuring efforts are gaining steam with only today Bloomberg reporting that GM may sell new mini-cars to U.S. buyers. Let's hope such measures aren't too late.
There almost seems no way to escape a bankruptcy of one of the Big Three, and as much as I've been on automakers' cases for a while now for not reading the market right and not seeing what many have plainly seen, I still hope they could find a way to rebound from this situation somehow. Bankruptcy of such a big company will affect the local economy even more. And bloggers really don't need to have more ruined building to add to their Flickr photostream.










Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-03-2008 @ 4:23PM
James Felix said...
It's certainly sad to see an American company failing that's been one of the top in the U.S. and whan an American buys an foreign car, that's one less sale for Ford and GM.
It's all about profit for ANY car producer to pay their bills with.
My kids have to have a job for forty years before they can hopefully retire.
I'd be dumb if i bought any foreign car and not think about my kids future.
There's over seven million foreign cars sold in the U.S. every year now.
I won't be here for them but i can try and help protect their future.
I've never bought a new foreign car and i never will.
I'm not that Dumb, jim
7-04-2008 @ 2:00AM
s said...
one of three ..NO .. i think TWO OF THREE :) OR THREE OF THREE :)
7-04-2008 @ 3:52PM
whtm said...
WHAT MAKES ME LAUGH IS THAT WALLSTREET BANKS ARE ON THE BRINK OF FAILURE AND ARE BROKER THAN ANY AUTO COMPANIES AND NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THAT! lol lol
7-04-2008 @ 10:29PM
sweetjuniper said...
hi melly, just wanted to add that the urban decay you saw and the ruins I document in my flickr stream are not necessarily the product of any decline in the auto industry, but the city's unique history of racism and segregation that destroyed the city of Detroit while the suburbs and exurbs thrived. The city of Detroit cannot be viewed in a vacuum as a victim of the auto industry---not when three million people live and all types of business and industry thrive outside of the city limits. there is a great deal of money here, it's just not in the city. the fortunes of the auto industry will affect the suburban workers still employed in the industry, though.
7-06-2008 @ 10:10PM
whtm said...
LOL WITH CITI LOSING 8 BILLION THIS QTR LOL LOL THE ANALYST LOL ARE TALKING ABOUT ??? STILL THE "DOMESTIC AUTO COMPANIES"LOL LOL I THINK THE SO CALLED ANALYST BETTER THINK ABOUT BROKE WALLSTREET BANKS !! OH AND CITI IS GOING TO LAYOFF 18,000 WOW WAY MORE THAN WHEN CHRYSLER SAID IT WAS CLOSING ST.LOUIS MINIVAN PLT . AND KILL ONE SHIFT AT THE TRK PLT.. ABOUT 2100 THERE.. HALF TO 3/4ths WILL RETIRE ! SO MUCH FOR THE NON UNION FINANICAL WORKERS OF AMERICA !!
7-07-2008 @ 9:29AM
Richard said...
It is tragic how far down General Motors and Ford have dropped. The root of the problem has been their lack of consolidation in the marketplace, which should have happened years ago. GM and Ford will both be in bankruptcy before long and some idiot politician will want to bail out the companies with taxpayer's money. It is all about competition and quality. I tend to favor Dodge, but with Nardelli running Chrysler now, I won't be purchasing any of their products now. I may go foreign on my next car or van.
7-07-2008 @ 11:49AM
ben bona said...
Buy a Japanese car. They are better and probably as "American" as GM or the others. Better be careful where all your other brands are coming from with everything you use in your life and stop shopping at WalMart while you are at it. Grow up! It is a competetive global economy.
If you ever worked at GM you would know why they are failing.
7-11-2008 @ 8:54PM
gary said...
G M cars are just as good as the foreign cars and if G M goes bankrupt the country will also follow who's going to pay for hospitalization only govt jobs with no tax money comming in
7-07-2008 @ 1:03PM
rgar102181 said...
With the US Governments failure to regulate industries and allow the free market to set trends, such as with the cost of oil, The Big Three, like most industries, must change there policies like most of us change our socks and underwear. Capitalism is something that most of us should have learned to accept years ago. It is possible that The Big Three will file for bankruptcy and then restructure, while the American Public whines about there taxes being to high.
7-07-2008 @ 3:18PM
Jim Benz said...
I'd hate to be a member of Congress right now. We are experiencing the Congressional Oil Embargo. It started about 25 years ago with all of the nonsense about "not drilling or refining in the US." It always takes a while for the chickens to come home to roost, but they come home, eventually.
I'm a "drill here, drill now" guy and let's make sure that our oil is used by the citizens for the good old US of A, not sold to all of the other nations that want to see us have a hard time. It's our oil, let's get it and use it now.
If Congress keeps triping over them selves the way they have been they may be very surprised in November. Where's Gringrich when we need him?
I'm really getting fed up with these idiots. Whose side are they on anyway? We should investigate whose paying them - they certainly don't think much of the American taxpayer trying to get to work - most of us can't use anything other than our cars because there are no alternatives for us.
I drive a big Mercury that gets 20 MPG in the city and 25 MPG on the highway. Not bad when compared to the garden variety SUV or truck. It's safer, too.
7-07-2008 @ 9:20PM
A D said...
There is no global economy.
Not as long as some players don't play the way the rest do.
Let's face it, Japan has devalued currency for a long time. GM is just another that is paying for it along with the entire population of the United States. There is no reason for Japan to continue with a prime rate of a half percent while holding better than a half trillion of US debt and low unemployment. Yet they do. And sadly that is a rate they recently increased from a tenth of a percent. The textbooks don't tell you what the effect is but it's obvious. They lend us their devalued currency while holding our massive debt and we pay both ends of the deal. It stinks to high heaven. Yet the soothsayers can't grasp it.
In a few years when the best a college grad can do is leave the the US it will sink in. We've been snookered and the smugness of those driving a Camry did it to us.
7-19-2008 @ 9:53PM
sanlanjon said...
People are demanding better gas mileage in all auto's. If Ford, GM, or Chrysler lets the Big Oil Companies run them... then this is what they get!!! Let the company run the company...not the UNION!
8-26-2008 @ 2:53PM
george sailer said...
i am one of those people who also worry about the future for our grandkids and generations after them. we have elected politicians who only worry about
themselves and have made the tax policies that encourage american corporations to ship millions of jobs out of this country.i cannot understand these people who buy everything foreign and then wonder where the jobs are. i always try to buy american made when possible
and would not consider a foreign made auto.i have always owned ford or gm products and have gotten good service from both.