The financials are flying -- there are finally bids for most of them underneath. Many, including Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take), are running. What a great time to put the negative cards on the table and put the negatives in perspective. That's right, let's look at the financial Achilles' heels. What could go wrong? In other words, here's the companion piece to Doug Kass' positive conversion. Here's what I am worried about even as Doug thinks everyone's too worried and the bottom is being put in.
To get started, let's look at what's not causing the endless declines in the stocks -- don't worry, we will get to the financial dirty dozen when I finish this preamble.
First, it ain't earnings. Earnings aren't going to be that great. But that's why the S&P is at 14 times. It can go to 12 or 11, or most likely stays at 13-14, but the E goes down (earnings).
Second, it ain't oil. The stocks sensitive to the increase in oil have room to go down, but the price of oil is being factored in slowly but surely.
Third, it isn't inflation or recession. Those two are being baked in each day.
No, it's balance sheets and the plight of the common equity. There are simply too many companies in trouble all at once to let us leave this morass behind us.
Specifically, there are 12 companies that are on my watch list as potential disasters that could wreck the market further. These are companies I have NO CONFIDENCE IN WHATSOEVER, and they must be on everyone's screen. They are what could imperil this market.
So, drum roll, please ...
1. Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take): Here's a company that is in so much trouble that I can't even begin to figure out how to fix it. There was a moment that it could have been unwound, but now your best hope is that it goes to $5 or $6 and we realize it could fail and we let the Saudis bail it out. Don't laugh -- that's the 1990 scenario. Pathetic that history repeats itself, but this is the worst-run major bank in the world. You get what you pay for. A dividend cut is next.
2. General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take): Merrill says what I thought was obvious when I said it the other day -- this one makes too much sense as a bankruptcy. Wrong cars, wrong balance sheet, one of the worst mortgage writers. Sold to you. Dividend cut needed. (Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) doesn't have the miserable mortgage business so I am not including it in the dirty dozen).
3. Lehman Brothers: I, too, once blamed the speculators. But I now feel that the CFO firing put an end to that. This company has very little earnings power, and it has very great exposure to mortgages worldwide. It has minimal disclosure. We need a takeunder to remove it from the critical list.
4. Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take): Without a sale of BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) (Cramer's Take) or Bloomberg, more equity is needed. Nobody wants to put up equity for this one. We still have no disclosure on the last-in-no-out mortgages they wrote. Black box. I don't want to buy a black box. Dividend cut? Good question.
5. Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take): Rudderless, knee-deep in unreserved California mortgages, still writing the lowest-quality mortgages as recently as Monday! Totally unacceptable. Rumored to be bought -- yeah. At under 10. Urgent dividend cut.
6. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take). They bought a company that could be shut down by indictments -- it has billions and billions of going-bad mortgages. Who the heck would want that? If BAC hadn't bought it, does anyone think it would still be alive? They swallowed the Love Canal when they drank from this well. Dividend cut needed, now.
7. Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take): People are talking about a bottom; I am talking about a company that has the worst collection of mortgages out there, the least verified, the worst quality, with a private-equity firm that will take your equity and crush it. Five-dollar lottery ticket. Nothing more.
8. Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take): Someone has to take the hit for this market. Some government entity has to bail out homeowners. It will be this one, and see No. 9. Dividend cut needed pronto.
9. Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take): see No. 8.
10. AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take): Frightening lack of transparency despite their endless attempts to say they are transparent. I think they are on the hook to the monolines and vice versa. Big London book. They need to eliminate that just-raised dividend. Pathetic lack of knowledge of their own book.
11. Cerberus: They are so confident it is scary. They can get away with it -- they are private. But it would be really frightening to read that they are running out of money.
12. The Gang of Four -- PMI (NYSE: PMI) (Cramer's Take), MGIC (NYSE: MTG) (Cramer's Take), MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take) and Ambac (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take): We all know what's happening here -- their insurance might be busted. So many outfits are still valuing their portfolios presuming some insurance protection that when the inevitable happens, we will get a severe hit to everyone's book.
As I mentioned earlier, we are getting some templates -- CIT (NYSE: CIT) (Cramer's Take) -- and some sense of urgency from the government, but not enough yet to make a difference. We need housing depreciation to stop, then the list would go from being Do Not Resuscitate to simply being grave.
But this is your list. Follow it; it is what's ailing this market.
Everything else is just an earnings sideshow.
Random musings: I did a list of the dirty dozen subprime mortgage names last year. Suffice it to say that the damage was unfathomable. The Fed did know nothing. Fortunately, the Fed still has ammo to bring the funds rate down to 0.5. Unfortunately, they switched directions on us.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-03-2008 @ 9:39AM
Bon said...
This problem has no quick fix. It will take years for the houseing inventory to be worked down. There are 2/3's less buyers out there now that can buy a home the old way. Builders built for the damand
and now the demand is next to nothing. The banks will take another hit this summer and the next hit will be at x-mas. Some of these banks will not be here next year. The problem is to big for the government to fix. This is what congress did when they eased the credit markets. This is not a rep. or demc. problem but a washintion problem all of them. None of them should be there.
7-03-2008 @ 10:41AM
gerald vaughn said...
Sell all AIG stock before it's to late! Going down down down!
7-03-2008 @ 11:19AM
speculator said...
Most of the financials are in multi-years bear markets. These companies profits were fraud, and they will not be able to generate the big revenue of the past with no structured finance and less leverage. I was surpised by how much some of these are down.
www.theinvestingspeculator.com
7-03-2008 @ 12:29PM
Byron Yost said...
The "fix" is wrong. A o.5 fed funds rate will kill the dollar and oil will go to $200 = game over. The fix is 4% mortgage money from the fed via FNMA and Freddie Mac. Heck they are printing 4% notes now. If they would just give decent mortgages to middle class Americans - remember them - the mortgage mess would ease, the banks would be spared, and heck - do I see a ray of sunshine on the horizon?
7-03-2008 @ 1:42PM
Boris said...
"This is not a rep. or demc. problem but a washintion problem all of them. None of them should be there."
It started with George W. Bush Sr., who destroyed the Savings & Loan institutions in order to get away with the mortgage loans controls.
7-03-2008 @ 2:34PM
ken wayne said...
I am buying the preferred stocks of the banks,with big interest, am I wrong?
7-06-2008 @ 7:33AM
whtm said...
TO ALL THE ALALYST OUT THERE I SAY DON'T TALK ABOUT CHRYSLER AND THE BIG THREE BEING BANKRUPT ? THEY HAVE MORE MONEY THAN THE REAL CLOSE TO FAILURE WALLSTREET BANKS ! YOU SO CALLED ANALYST BETTER START TO TALK ABOUT BROKE WALLSTREET!AND NOT THE AUTO COMPANIES. YOU FOOLS HAVE NO CLUE ! THANKS TO THE WELFARE BAILOUT OF WALLSTREET BY THE FEDS IN FEB DID NOT WORK AND ALL IT DID WAS RAISE INFLATION , DEVALUE THE DOLLAR AND MADE OIL SKYROCKET ! THANKS BEN YOU IDIOT! SO BEFORE THE ANALYST TALK MORE ABOUT THE AUTO INDUSTRIES THE FIRST FOUR LETTERS IN ANALYST IS WHAT YOU IDIOTS ARE..