Alcoa Q2 results to set the tone for the second half?

As the second half of the year begins, the bear market has nervous investors looking for any sign of a shift in the direction of the market. When the new earnings seasons kicks off Tuesday, Alcoa Inc.'s (NYSE: AA) second-quarter results may offer the first glimpse of what to expect going forward.

Pittsburgh-based Alcoa has missed earnings estimates in just two out of the past five quarters. When the leading aluminum producer reported first-quarter results back in March, its net income of 44 cents per share fell short of the consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial by four cents, and were down from 79 cents per share in the same quarter of 2007. For this current quarter, analysts expect earnings of 68 cents per share on $7.4 billion in revenue.

In recent news, power supply issues led Alcoa to idle its Rockdale, Tex., facility. The company announced a deal for bauxite mining and alumina processing in Vietnam. Alcoa was named one of the world's most ethical companies and recognized for the best safety performance in its industry. And back in early May, Klaus Kleinfield became Alcoa's president and CEO. For analyst upgrades and downgrades, as well as other news that could influence Alcoa's results, see BloggingStocks' Alcoa coverage.

Alcoa's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 21.6%, which is less than the metals and mining industry average but better than the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation from analysts is to buy Alcoa, and has been for more than 90 days. The share price has been falling from a recent high of $44. 77 in mid May, and closed at $32.78 on Friday. Shares are down 10.3% year to date.

Bellwether General Electric (NYSE: GE) also reports later in the week, and may also help set the tone for the quarter and the rest of the year.

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