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Oil falls for second day to $136 on global slowdown concerns

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Oil fell more than $5 to $136 per barrel Tuesday morning as concern about a global economic slowdown prompted traders to conclude that oil demand growth may slow in the quarters ahead.

Oil fell $5.11 to $136.26 per barrel -- a drop that brought its two-day decline to more than $8. (Oil is still about 90% higher than a year ago, and about 400% higher than in 2000.)

The other major energy commodities, likewise, plunged for a second day, in early Tuesday trading. Heating oil plummeted 14 cents to $3.83 per gallon, unleaded gasoline fell 12 cents to $3.36 per gallon, and natural gas plunged 45 cents to $12.53 per million BTUs.

Some bloom off the energy rose?

Economist Peter Dawson said investors and traders are taking a harder look at the energy picture, in light of recent corporate and economic data points. While underscoring that "it's always difficult to try to evaluate events in motion," Dawson said a protracted recession in the U.S. combined with a global slowdown "would take some of the bloom off the energy asset rose."

"This year, the markets have registered enormous gains in oil, and if in fact all major economies are slowing, oil demand growth with slow, driving oil and its products lower," Dawson said. "But that doesn't mean the long-term bull market is over. We would need a sustained reduction oil consumption, not just a reduction in growth, to end oil's long-term bull market."

Further, Dawson said he sees little evidence that investors are exiting oil and other commodities as inflation hedges. "There's no-doubt short-term trading-related selling going on, but I don't see a downturn in inflation ahead, so institutional investors in oil and other commodities as inflation hedges are not likely to reduce their positions. Rising inflation is something that's going to endure," Dawson said.

Oil Analysis: Indeed, as Dawson outlined, slower global growth will ease price pressures on oil, but investors and traders should keep in mind that large, sustained reductions in oil consumption, not just consumption growth, would be needed to break oil's record run. To date, there's little evidence of demand reduction outside the United States, in which gasoline consumption has declined on a year-over-year basis; U.S. heating oil consumption may decline later this year as well. But absent reduced oil consumption from Asia, it's hard to foresee an end to oil's bull run.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 03:05 PM

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