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Boeing sees $3.2 trillion airplane market over next two decades

Boeing (NYSE: BA) Wednesday increased its 20-year forecast for global commercial jetliner deliveries for the sector by 2.8%, forecasting that demand for fuel-efficient replacement aircraft will outweigh capacity reductions by U.S. carriers.

Encompassing all airline manufacturers in the sector, Boeing now expects a market for 29,400 new commercial airplanes (passenger and freighter) by 2027, up 2.8% from its previous estimate of 28,600. Boeing added that the forecast factors-in the sector's near-term challenges, including a slowing global economy, surging fuel prices, slowing traffic growth in some markets, and a concerted action by airlines to lower costs.

Shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA) gained 25 cents to $66.18 on the news in Wednesday afternoon trading, despite a 131-point market sell-off in the DJIA.

Boeing added that single-aisle airplanes will make up the bulk of the sector's deliveries during the next 20 years. Strong domestic and intra-regional air travel growth in emerging Asia-Pacific markets, along with continued growth of low-cost carriers worldwide, is driving demand in this segment, the company said. Orders from Asia will comprise 31% of the deliveries; North America, 29%; and Europe/Asia, 27%.

China, India, Brazil and Russia to the rescue

Stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday it's a case of exports to emerging market nations providing "a partial saving grace for the U.S. economy, once again."

"Asia in particular, but also Europe and Russia will keep the jetliner order cycle humming, barring unforeseen events. It's a real shot in the arm for Boeing because cutbacks by U.S. airlines means Boeing will lose a significant amount of domestic-based revenue," Bauer said. "And once again U.S. exports are helping to brighten an otherwise really clouded U.S. economic picture." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing.

Further, Bauer added that while surging jet fuel prices "will threaten nearly every commercial airline's business model if they keep rising," the start of the high energy price era is actually a net-positive for Boeing, long-term. The reason, in Bauer's interpretation? Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner.

When launched, the 787 will easily become the most fuel-efficient, creature-comfort-filled, advanced commercial jetliner, Bauer said, adding that "fuel savings will likely exceed 15%, probably approach 20%," subject to final design modifications.

"In a high energy price world, fuel efficiency is king, and the 787 Dreamliner is royalty," Bauer said. "Boeing is a generation ahead of other airliner manufacturers in this technical specification."

The 787 is part of Boeing's enhanced point-to-point strategy versus rival European Union-based Airbus, which argues that superjumbo airplane travel will be the dominant flight in the next decade.

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DJIA-344.6511,188.23
NASDAQ-74.692,259.04
S&P 500-38.151,236.83

Last updated: September 05, 2008: 05:50 AM

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