The earnings season was officially launched last night with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reporting better than expected numbers, and tomorrow we are going to see another big name, Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) report its second quarter numbers.
The company is due to report its current earnings prior to the market open, and going into tomorrow's report analysts are looking to see the company show 49 cents per share on $3.15 billion in revenues. The housing slump over the past year has definitely been hurting hotel operators, so it will be interesting to see what kind of quarter Marriott is able to show to its investors.
The last time the hotel chain released its quarterly numbers was back on April 17, when it matched analyst estimates for its first quarter with 33 cents per share. The stock made a brief rally following the release, but over the past month has been in a solid downward trend.
There are definitely some signs on the wall that shareholders could be in store for some more bad news come tomorrow morning. Last month the company revealed that it was lowering its estimate on second quarter growth in North American revenue per available room (revpar) to around 2%. This was lowered from a previous estimate of between 3 and 5%. At that time, the company also forecast that we would not see any improvements in revpar during the second half of this year.
There are, however, some varying takes on what to expect from the company this time around. JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) has stated that they expect to hear about slowdowns in leisure transient and corporate demand. On June 30 the firm lowered its estimate on the company to $34 from $47.
Last month the stock was downgraded by Wachovia (NYSE: WB) to a "market weight" from an "overweight." Wachovia stated that it sees a lack of catalysts in the industry to boost leisure demand, and noted a slowdown in discretionary spending.
On the other side of the aisle, Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) is more optimistic on the company and is willing to overlook the weak revpar outlook we have been given. According to Lehman analyst Felicia Hendrix, Marriott is able to overcome lower revpar, and that the lower figures should not have much effect on the company's overall results. Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) is also a bit more optimistic, and feels as though the company has a better risk/reward ratio than competitors such as Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT)
With the stock trading near four year lows, shareholders could definitely use a little good news from the company tomorrow morning. Will they get it? Well, your guess is as good as mine.
What are your predictions? Will Marriott hit its number? Will we start to see the tide shifting for the company and the stock moving higher over the remainder of the year? Let us hear what you are looking to see from Marriott both tomorrow and over the rest of 2008.
Let's close by taking a closer look at a 12 month chart on the stock so you can get a better picture of what shareholders have been dealing with:

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.










