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Oil bounces on news of Iranian missile test

The past couple of trading days it started to look as though oil had finally run out of steam and was coming back to "reasonable" levels. Well, prices are moving higher once again today following news that Iran has test-launched 9 missiles today.

After heading up to $145 a barrel last week, oil had fallen nicely over the past two trading sessions, and as of last night prices were down at $136.04. Today, oil is moving up $1.63 a barrel as the market once again is facing the hard reality of an unpredictable future in the Middle East.

Iran has been all over the news over the past couple of years, and the main theme is the country's nuclear energy ambitions. The West, and Israel, have been claiming for a long time now that Iran has one goal in mind... nuclear weapons. But Iran has been defiant in its claims that it is only after nuclear energy and that its nuclear program is purely for peaceful means.

I am not going to take sides, it is up to you to decide who you believe in this debate, but one thing is for sure: the more we hear about Iran and possible nuclear weapons, the more volatility we are going to see in the price of oil. Today, things got a little more interesting after reports broke about Iran testing nine long- and medium-range missiles.

Both America and Israel have stepped up their language over the past couple of weeks regarding Iran, and Israel recently had war exercises in Greece that many believe were a test run for a possible upcoming attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

One of the missiles that Iran tested reportedly has the potential to reach Israel, and this for sure is going to lead to higher speculation that an attack on Iran is coming in the not too distant future.

While the United States has said that it does not wish to get involved militarily with Iran, it has not ruled out the scenario either, and you have to really wonder what the likelihood of America staying on the sidelines would be should something erupt between Iran and America's strongest Middle Eastern ally, Israel.

With tensions already high, things are definitely getting sketchier by the day in the area. Just yesterday, Iran stated that it would set fire to Israel and the United States' navy in the Persian Gulf should any attack be made on its nuclear facility. This follows recent rhetoric from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Israel will disappear.

Just how this whole mess will work itself out is anyone's guess, but its short-term effect is crystal clear - higher oil prices.

What are your thoughts on the Iranian situation and how it would affect oil prices. Let us hear what you think on this highly explosive issue.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

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Last updated: September 06, 2008: 01:48 PM

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