AOL Money & Finance

Best Buy (BBY) falls on retail analyst's comments

More

BBY logoBest Buy (NYSE: BBY) shares are falling today after a retail analyst at research company RetailMetrics LLC noted that, despite moderately encouraging same-store sales in June, retailers could face challenges through the remainder of the year. Rebate checks helped retailers this month, he notes, but they only provided a "one-time bump." He added that the back-to-school season is going to be challenging for retailers, which could be bad news for BBY. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on JPM.

After hitting a one-year high of $53.90 in December, the stock has hit a new one-year low today. This morning, BBY opened at $40.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $38.20 and a high of $40.06. As of 12:15, BBY is trading at $38.54, down 1.31 (-3.3%). The chart for BBY looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $47.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in ten weeks as long as BBY is below $47.50 at September expiration. Best Buy would have to rise by more than 22% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

BBY hasn't been above $47.50 since January and has shown resistance around $41 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 9/16) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance BBY might find at its 200-day moving average, which is currently around $46 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in BBY.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 07:04 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

    BioHealth Investor Headlines

    WalletPop Headlines

    My Portfolios

    Track your stocks here!

    Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

    BloggingStocks Partners

    More from AOL Money & Finance

    WalletPop Headlines