That things aren't going well for the economy, the informed investor / reader does not have to be reminded about.

You don't need to be a financial editor with a Ph.D. in international economics to detect that.

Or, as CNN's Larry King would say, "For this, he went to school?...To tell me that things aren't going too well for the United States, these days, economically?"

Further, you can cite a dozen or more statistics that can give you a pretty good evaluation or thumb nail sketch of the U.S. economy's health - - gross domestic product, or GDP, being one of the best - - and prudent investors / traders monitor them.

But if you want a quick, summary indicator - - a snapshot of the health of the U.S. economy in-an-instant, if you will, check one index: the Dow Jones Industrial Average - - the most cited and widely recognized stock market index in the world. It's also still the most important stock market index in the world.

The industrials set the tone

During faddish or frenzied times or during the financial world's latest fascination with a new sector or sector index, Wall Street veteran Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., undoubtedly will be seen saying something like this, "Friends, it is called the Dow Jones INDUS-TRI-AL Average, not the biotech average."

Metz's point is obvious enough, but somehow regularly forgotten by typical investors and professional market participants, alike: to gauge the health of the economy, monitor the industrials, and for a snapshot of the above, monitor the Dow.

In the decades since its inception, many indexes and indicators, all relevant and illuminating, have followed - - the S & P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and countless sector indexes - - but if you want to take the pulse of the U.S. economy, and more broadly, and by extension, the health of United States / the state of the union, keep your eye on the Dow.
True, there have instances when the Dow was at lofty levels and the U.S. economy was not, and even rarer instances when the economy was improving and the Dow had not immediately caught on, but by and large the Dow - - a lead indicator - - and the outlook for the U.S economy go hand-in-hand.

These days, a much-maligned DJIA

So what's the Dow saying now about the U.S. economy? Not good things. The Dow, which closed Wednesday at 11,147.44, is down about 14% since its October 2007 high. Market analysts say the Dow has declined 'for good reasons' or justifiably: the housing sector's deep doldrums persist, and more mortgage/asset-backed securities write-offs loom. Oil and gasoline prices are at sky-high levels that sap consumer disposable income and considerably increase business costs. Inflation, fanned by those high oil prices, is rising. Businesses have eliminated more than 400,000 jobs so far in 2008, and more job losses are likely in the months and quarters ahead.

Moreover, with each data point of bad news the Dow rendered its verdict, and sold off by a measure - - amassing a roughly 3,000-point decline - - a bear market. With its decline, the Dow is saying economic conditions have deteriorated and the outlook is not good: the Dow is signaling that the U.S. economy is more likely to fall into recession (if it hasn't already) than to recover in the next 3-6 months.

DJIA also is a report card

Further, the Dow can also help one assess historical U.S. economic performance. Along with democracy, one hallmark of the U.S. system is a return on equity - - capitalism, as measured by stock market performance.

Since we're approaching a presidential election, it's appropriate to review how the stock market and the U.S. economy have fared over the past decade, since January 2001. On January 1, 2001 the Dow was at 10,790.92. In other words, the Dow is up about 5% in eight years. Again, that's five percent in eight years. The Dow's paltry gain - - negative, if one adjusts for inflation - - says that the United States economy has performed poorly over roughly the past decade, 2001-2008.

In comparison, during the previous decade, from January 1993 to January 2001, the Dow increased more than 225%, from 3,301.11 to 10,790.92. That's two hundred twenty five percent in about ten years, during roughly the decade of the 1990s - - a period when the U.S. economy performed very well. The Dow knows a strong economy when it sees one.

So if you're rushed or don't have the time to pour over news stories about the economy and you want a quick read regarding how the U.S. economy is doing, and what the outlook for then next 3-6 months is, you don't have to search too much.

Just keep your eye on the Dow.