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Don't hold your breath waiting for the government to take over Fannie and Freddie

While scare stories abound about an imminent government takeover of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), I doubt we'll ever really see that. I suspect what's fueling these stories is an attempt by the Bush Administration to tell Fannie and Freddie that they must raise additional capital quickly or more drastic action will be taken.

Truthfully, the government can't afford to take over Fannie and Freddie because their outstanding debt would more than double the federal government debt outstanding, which would further deteriorate the dollar on international markets. Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about $5.2 trillion dollars of U.S. home mortgages, or nearly half of those outstanding.

Stock investors are running from the company, but bond investors are not. According to the Wall Street Journal this morning, Bill Gross, chief investment office of PIMCO, bought a large amount of Fannie Mae debt on Thursday. He told the Journal, a default would set off "a firestorm of intolerable proportions." Legg Mason Capital is making big bets on the health of Freddie. At the end of the first quarter it became Freddie's second-largest shareholder, adding 35.6 million shares for at total of 50.2 million. Other major holders include AXA, Capital World Investors, and Pzena Investment Management.

Howard Shapiro, a New York based Fox-Pitt analyst told Bloomberg Fannie would need to lose $40 billion immediately and Freddie would need to lose $37 billion to be considered insolvent. For this to happen, the housing market would need to decline 40% and delinquency rates would have to increase to 12% to reach critical capital levels.

Analysts think there are a number of alternatives short of conservatorship that could shore up both companies so critical to the U.S.. housing market and economy:
  • The Fed could purchase some of the debt or mortgage-backed securities. If the Fed can bail out a private firm like the JP Morgan/Bear Stearns deal, why not the more crucial home mortgage firms of Fannie and Freddie?
  • The Fed could make large, 10-year loans to the companies. The Fed has certainly showed its willingness to make loan money available to private financial institutions in trouble.
  • Fannie and Freddie could raise the needed additional capital privately.
  • The government could move the companies combined investment portfolios into a separate limited liability corporation that would gradually liquidate the assets to free up capital Freddie and Fannie need to package new mortgage loans.
Congressional leaders also think there are other alternatives. Both Republicans and Democrats are calling for the use of government funds to prevent the companies from failing. That help will come with a price. Congress would most likely tie any bailout to a stronger regulator for the companies.

Lita Epstein is the author of more than 25 books including "Reading Financial Reports for Dummies" and "Trading for Dummies."

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Last updated: October 14, 2008: 08:05 AM

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