While scare stories abound about an imminent government takeover of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), I doubt we'll ever really see that. I suspect what's fueling these stories is an attempt by the Bush Administration to tell Fannie and Freddie that they must raise additional capital quickly or more drastic action will be taken.Truthfully, the government can't afford to take over Fannie and Freddie because their outstanding debt would more than double the federal government debt outstanding, which would further deteriorate the dollar on international markets. Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about $5.2 trillion dollars of U.S. home mortgages, or nearly half of those outstanding.
Stock investors are running from the company, but bond investors are not. According to the Wall Street Journal this morning, Bill Gross, chief investment office of PIMCO, bought a large amount of Fannie Mae debt on Thursday. He told the Journal, a default would set off "a firestorm of intolerable proportions." Legg Mason Capital is making big bets on the health of Freddie. At the end of the first quarter it became Freddie's second-largest shareholder, adding 35.6 million shares for at total of 50.2 million. Other major holders include AXA, Capital World Investors, and Pzena Investment Management.
Howard Shapiro, a New York based Fox-Pitt analyst told Bloomberg Fannie would need to lose $40 billion immediately and Freddie would need to lose $37 billion to be considered insolvent. For this to happen, the housing market would need to decline 40% and delinquency rates would have to increase to 12% to reach critical capital levels.
Analysts think there are a number of alternatives short of conservatorship that could shore up both companies so critical to the U.S.. housing market and economy:
- The Fed could purchase some of the debt or mortgage-backed securities. If the Fed can bail out a private firm like the JP Morgan/Bear Stearns deal, why not the more crucial home mortgage firms of Fannie and Freddie?
- The Fed could make large, 10-year loans to the companies. The Fed has certainly showed its willingness to make loan money available to private financial institutions in trouble.
- Fannie and Freddie could raise the needed additional capital privately.
- The government could move the companies combined investment portfolios into a separate limited liability corporation that would gradually liquidate the assets to free up capital Freddie and Fannie need to package new mortgage loans.
Lita Epstein is the author of more than 25 books including "Reading Financial Reports for Dummies" and "Trading for Dummies."
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-11-2008 @ 11:38AM
guerro said...
The only problem with your listed solutions is there is no provision for responsible people who pay their mortgage and obey all the rules and regulations of the contract they signed. Or, for that matter, companies who make sound business decisions. Why should irresponsible companies who made stupid decisions be rewarded while successful, honest, good decision makers are laughed at? They should be offered nothing and be allowed to sink or swim. Screwed up and made really poor business decisions? Fine, you go out of business. Its business world Darwinism. Natural selection for companies.
Politicians KNOW NOTHING about the economy and finance. We may as well let a bunch of monkeys decide what to do.
7-11-2008 @ 11:58AM
Karl said...
The USA is being busted down by the Rockefellers and CFR crowd into the global economy BS and the USA is history. Tried to overthrow the USA back in the 1930's and my grandfather was an American Legion comander and WW1 officer in the plot. USMC Gen.Smedley Butler played along but spilled the beans to FDR and Congress so they turned to Germany and backed Adolf Hitler instead. That sure turned out well for them-made a fortune supplying both sides in WW11! Now they are playing this stuff again and we are being snookered good. Dollar is toast, we;re over 85 trillion in the hole folks so buy some gold, silver, real stuff, maybe rural land and a gun. North American Union is coming up and a new currency. Cheney, Bill Clinton,GW Bush all have mansions in DUBAI with the Hollywood set. CIA will make sure everyone stays in line for the crash, then they will buy us back for pennies on the dollar. Traitors.
7-11-2008 @ 12:58PM
henry kiel said...
Do not vote for a sitting congressman or congress women in primary elections democrat or repulican.We vote for them to benfit the entire country it was there job to stop the subprime mess before it started.They are the ones that caused this problem.All of them should resign and give up there pensions for doing such a rotten job.In the subprime and oil mess.they spend to much time bashing the other party.they need to know they work for the American people and do not work for there politacal parties.If i were a congress person i would hang my head low and hide out after i resigned.they are still bashing the other party while on vacation.No bail out for any company.
7-11-2008 @ 12:59PM
william lindblad said...
Astute observations, however this has far reaching implications and no sound solution. It is the same as Bear Sterns, but on a grand scale. I know I am on record as saying this was going to happen at least six months ago and the consequence would be another RTC situation. What still has not been fully understood by government is that the amount of money that must be underwritten is beyond even the taxpayer. Yet they must do whatever is required not to let these entities sink. Unfortunate as it may be, this is a likely scenario. With all of the debt that is known there is more to come. The new financial game in town resembles something between a shell game and a ponzi scheme and it's purpose is to remove write-down debt, transfer it to a new holder with money loaned by the originator, thus making a bad loan look good and push the problem into the future. Since these are all real estate based the only way this will work is for the market to recover next year or so. The current thinking in Washington is bring back the 20% down, 3 year job history and fairly solid credit guidelines for prospective buyers. This is closing the barn door after the horse has left and will constrain any recovery, if anything. I could keep writing, but there is little point. Our leadership has failed, whether it be ignorance or corruption does not matter nor does finding a source to blame. We are well on the way to an economic situation that will equal 1893-1910 or 1929-39. Considering that the entire world is now involved, it might even be worse.
7-11-2008 @ 9:59PM
JOHN WRIGHT said...
I KNOW THAT I SOUND LIKE A BITTER OLD MAN BUT WHEN I PURCHASED MY HOUSE I HAD TO COME UP WITH 20% DOWN AND PROVE TO THE BANK THAT I COULD MAKE THE PAYMENT(WE DID NOT HAVE THIS NO PAYMENT ON PRINCLE FOR FIVE YEARS. NOW BECAUSE IT NICE TO HELP OUT THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN SAME IN OFFICE, THEY PASS ALL KINDS OF LAWS. IF THEY BAIL THEM OUT WHO GOING TO PAY-TAXPAYER RIGHT-I WILL BET MY BOTTOM DOLLAR THAT MOST OF THEM DON'T TAX -I BELIEVE THAT ALL THE TOP PEOPLE AT THE MORTAGE COMPANY THAT GOES UNDER SHOULD GO JAIL AND THEIR ASSETS BE SOLD TO HELP PAY SOME OF THE COST-BUT THEY HAVE HIDDEN MOST OF THEM
7-11-2008 @ 10:00PM
kluji said...
if Bill gross of Pimco bought it.....stay far away from it. This guy is TERRIBLE IN A BEAR MARKET. Checkout his results. http://www.morningstar.com/FundFamily/Pimco.html
A chimp could do just as well!!
7-12-2008 @ 10:38PM
wzweifler said...
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