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U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market

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U.S. consumer confidence in July remained near 28-year lows, an indication American adults continue to be concerned about rising energy and food prices, job layoffs, and the prospects for a U.S. economic recovery.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its reading of confidence rose just slightly to to 56.6 in July, from 56.4 in June. The index stood at 59.8 in May, 62.8 in April, and 69.5 in March, Reuters reported Friday.

The July reading was a scant rise and hardly a positive data point for the economy, given that June's reading was the index's lowest since May 1980 -- a period also characterized by high oil/gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the May index would fall to 56.0.

Americans 'guarded and concerned' about economy

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday July's consumer sentiment reading did nothing to shift his evaluation regarding the American people's stance toward the U.S. economy.

"The public remains guarded and concerned, with little optimism, save for a few, fortunate income and wealth segments. We have the most serious economic downturn in a decade, from the stand point of the typical person or employee. Consumers are seeing gasoline and food prices rise by the week, and they're concerned about job losses," Dawson said. "When you combine job worries with price rises just about everywhere you look, with a housing sector that shows little signs of recovery, and the lower home values that trend implies, it doesn't breed consumer confidence, so it's not surprising the [University of] Michigan survey reading is near its lowest point in decades."

Further, the survey's expectations component declined for the sixth consecutive month, to 48.3 in July from 49.2 in June.

What's needed to get the sentiment index in the right direction? Dawson said oil prices must trend lower (the opposite of the current 4-year trend), and "some engine of growth must surface to get the U.S. economy growing again" -- be it a sector's resurgence (such as information technology), or public spending (such as infrastructure work).
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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 07:03 AM

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